Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump may hope to win the victory circle on Monday as they recently launched a joint strike against Iran, both of which were unabashedly successful.
But when they meet for the third time this year, Israel's 21-month conflict over Hamas in Gaza and difficult questions about how Trump will force the conflict will be plagued by Israel's 21-month conflict over Hamas.
Trump has made it clear that he hopes to see the Gaza conflict end soon after a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran. A meeting between Trump and Netanyahu could give new urgency to the U.S. ceasefire proposal discussed by Israel and Hamas, but whether this leads to an agreement to end the conflict is unclear.
“The optics will be very positive,” said Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “But there will be some very serious problems behind the victory circle.”
Netanyahu praised the cooperation with the United States for bringing “a huge victory over our shared enemy” before setting out for Washington on Sunday. He made a positive note on the ceasefire in Gaza, saying he was working to “conclude a deal for discussion on terms we agreed to.”
“I think the discussion with President Trump can undoubtedly help improve this outcome, which is what we all hope for,” Netanyahu said.
“It changes every day”
Israel and Hamas appear to be moving towards a new ceasefire agreement that will stop for 60 days in combat, cause aid floods to Gaza and at least some of the remaining 50 hostages held on the territory.
But a key point in perenniality is whether a ceasefire will completely end the conflict. Hamas said it was willing to release all hostages in exchange for the end of the conflict and evacuate all from Gaza from Israel. Netanyahu said that once Hamas surrenders, disarms and exiles, the conflict will end – it refuses to do it.
Trump made it clear that he wanted to be called the peacemaker. He has repeatedly boasted about the recent peace agreements, the promotion of his government between India and Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Rwanda, and Israel and Iran, and over the years, he has had little secret to the facts of the Nobel Peace Prize.
He has been forcing Israel and Hamas to end their conflict, which killed thousands of Palestinians, undermined Gaza, deepened Israel's international isolation and resolved a more distant conflict between Israel and Palestinians.
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However, the exact details of the transaction and whether it can lead to the end of the conflict are still at a disadvantage. Trump seemed to downplay the chances of breaking through the days before Netanyahu's visit.
When asked about Friday, Trump told reporters: “I'm very optimistic – but you know, look, it's changing every day.”
On Sunday night, he seemed to narrow his expectations and told reporters that he believes a deal related to the remaining hostages will be reached next week.
Trump and Netanyahu are more synced than ever
These emotional fluctuations also reflect Trump's relationship with Netanyahu.
The two leaders were more in sync than ever after Trump decided to participate in Israel's war in Iran. But that's not always the case.
That tone was noticeably different when Netanyahu last visited Washington in April.
Using photography with Netanyahu, Trump announced that the U.S. was negotiating its nuclear deal for its nuclear deal—which seemed to catch Israeli leaders off guard, at the time, imposing brakes on any Israeli military plan.
He also praised Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a fierce critic of Israel in front of Netanyahu, who did not make significant progress on the trade deal at the highest point of Trump's tariff hike.
Trump's policies are largely aligned with Israel's own priorities, and he promised to end the conflict with Netanyahu last week “very firm” without saying what that means. Trump's pressure has worked in Netanyahu in the past, and when the president takes office again, a ceasefire deal was reached.
Netanyahu must balance the demands of far-right parties in his American-ruling coalition, which is key to his political survival and opposes ending the conflict.
But given the strong U.S. support for Israel’s war against Iran, which stands out in a reinforced underground Iran nuclear site, Netanyahu may be hard to say no.
Trump said Sunday night that one thing he expected to discuss with Netanyahu “may be a permanent deal with Iran.”
Trump may also expect his recent call for Netanyahu's corruption trial to be cancelled – a serious interference in the interior ministry of sovereign states.
“Trump believes Netanyahu owes him,” said Eytan Gilboa, an American-Israel expert at Barr-Elan University near Tel Aviv. “And if Trump thinks he needs to end the conflict in Gaza, that’s what he needs to do.”
The two may discuss with Iran the ceasefire and how to deal with any perceived violations.
But outside Iran, Trump has a long vision for the New Middle East, and he hopes that other countries will join the Abraham Agreement, a series of agreements that normalize relations between Arab countries and Israel, which Israel was commemorated during Trump's first term.
Netanyahu and Trump may discuss how to bring Syria into the situation. The country is a long-time enemy of the Israelites, with new leadership after President Bashar Assad's collapse, experts say the conditions for some kind of non-litigation agreement may have been ripe.
But Trump's ultimate goal is to include regional power Saudi Arabia.
Saudi influence could be the gateway to other Arab or Muslim countries, and he expressed interest in normalizing ties with Israel, but only if it was accompanied by serious steps to resolve the conflict between Israel and Palestinians. For beginners, this seems to require action in Gaza.
“The most important thing (for Trump) is to end the war in Gaza,” Gilboya said. “This is the key to peace in all regions of the Middle East.”
–Prices reported from Washington.
