Data released by the Chinese government on Friday provides a peek into how the trade war has reordered the global cargo process.
Last month, exports from China were driven by other Southeast Asian countries, even as President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods forced a sharp slowdown in freight to the United States.
In China, imports have fallen as demand continues to weaken.
Trade figures were released in April during Friday's capture event, when tensions between the United States and China escalated faster than expected. In a series of measures, President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and China imposed a 125% tax on American goods.
As a result, the decline in Chinese goods fell by 21% compared with the same period last year. But China's exports to Southeast Asian countries increased by 21%.
“This is an early signal that the front and back loads of the supply chain are happening,” said Raymond Yeung, chief economist at Bank of New Zealand ANZ. “This is a redirection of trade that has been well documented,” he said.
Mr Yang said China's exports to countries such as Vietnam and Thailand have soared, while data from imports from Taiwan and South Korea suggests that Chinese factories are taking advantage of tariffs from countries in the region to complete orders provided to the United States.
Overall shipment jump for goods from China Compared to a year ago, April was 8.1%. Data shows that in the past few months, Chinese factories have been eager to transport goods as the trade war worsens. Many of these commodities end up in Southeast Asian countries or some export-oriented countries of the ASEAN Association.
“Domestic producers have stopped producing most of the U.S. market, but they are preparing for ASEAN countries because that’s where they prepare for the factory for this situation,” said Dan Wang, director of the Eurasian Group China team, referring to 10 countries in 10 countries.
In recent years, as China's domestic economy has fallen into trouble due to the collapse of the housing market, the government has become more inclined to the transportation of its overseas goods. The real estate crisis has spread throughout the rest of the economy, leaving banks and local governments is trapped in debt, and young people have fewer choices at work.
April data could make Beijing policymakers breathe, a widespread concern over the impact of the trade war on China's economic outlook. But economists warn that unemployment could surge if factory orders drop to force companies to fire workers. Over the course of more than a year in April, Chinese factories experienced the steepest monthly slowdown.
China's financial regulator said this week they are ready to step in to increase domestic demand to cope with the impact of the trade war. Central banks cut interest rates and relaxed monetary faucets to direct more money into the economy to encourage businesses and people to spend.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s vice-president, his life this weekend in Geneva, the first official meeting since Trump raised tariffs to triple-digit numbers in April.
Zixu Wang Contributed to Hong Kong's reporting.
