South Sudan is on the brink of as the Sudan war threatens important oil industry

South Sudan relies on more than 90% of the government revenue of oil, and the country relies entirely on Sudan to export valuable resources.

But, according to an official government letter from Al Jazeera, the Sudanese Army-backed government said it was preparing to shut down facilities its southern neighbors used to export oil.

Experts warn that the decision could collapse South Sudan's economy and drag it directly into the thorny civil war between the Army and the Paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF).

The announcement comes on May 9, six days after the RSF launched in Port Sudan for six consecutive days, the wartime capital of the Army's strategic Red Sea coast.

The strike destroyed a fuel warehouse and damage to the grid, breaking the city’s sense of security that was far from the front lines of the country.

Sudan's army claims that damage has now weakened oil exports to South Sudan.

“Announcement is like a desperate plea [to South Sudan] To stop these [RSF] attack.

He added: “But I think doing so overestimates South Sudan's leverage on the RSF.”

Predatory Economics

Since South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, the former relies on the latter to export its oil through the Port of Sudan.

In return, Sudan has received part of the 2005 peace agreement from Juba, which ended the 22-year civil war in the north and south and ultimately led to the division of South Sudan from Sudan.

The former continues to charge fees from Juba when another civil war between the Army and the RSF broke out in 2023.

“[Sudan and South Sudan] Due to the oil export infrastructure, it is financially tied. ” Boswell told Al Jazeera.

Local media recently reported that senior officials from South Sudan and Sudan were holding talks to avoid closing oil exports.

Al Jazeera sent a written question to Port Sudan’s Energy and Oil Minister Mohieddein Naiem Mohamed asking whether the Army was making higher rents from South Sudan before resuming oil exports, and some experts were sentenced to a possible situation.

Naiem Mohamed did not respond before the release.

According to the International Crisis Group, Juba also paid the RSF fee to avoid damage to the oil pipeline running through its controlled territory.

In addition, South Sudan also allows RSF to operate in villages along the border of Sudan’s South Sudan.

The RSF established a strategic alliance with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM-N) in February, increasing its presence on a massive and porous border after it established a strategic alliance with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in February.

SPLM-N fought against the separatist forces against the Sudanese army. It controls the territory of the southern Sudan Cordodan and the Blue Nile region, historically linked to Juba.

South Sudan’s civil society leader and commentator Edmund Yakani said South Sudan’s relationship with SPLM-N and RSF is becoming increasingly frustrated.

“[Sudan’s army] It is suspected that Juba is helping the RSF to leverage its military capabilities and political space to manipulate the fight against the Sudanese army. Yakani told Al Jazeera.

House of Cards

According to a 2021 International Crisis Group report, about 60% of South Sudan’s oil profits go to multinational companies that produce oil.

The report explains that 40% of the remaining 40% went to repay outstanding loans and paid back South Sudan’s ruling elite in the swollen security sector and bureaucracy.

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir may not keep his patronage network together without a quick recovery of oil revenue.

Experts warn that his fragile government – an alliance of long-time loyalists and passing opponents could collapse like a house of cards.

Al Jazeera sent written questions via email to South Sudan’s Foreign Ministry and international cooperation to ask if the country has any contingency plans to prevent oil exports from ceased indefinitely. The ministry did not respond before it was released.

Experts warn that South Sudan has no choice.

Security personnel and civil servants have owed months of payback salaries, and they may be against each other if they have no motivation to maintain a fragile peace agreement that has led South Sudan to end its own five-year civil war in 2018.

“Kiir is on an extremely vulnerable basis and has no backup plans,” said Matthew Benson, a Sudanese and South Sudanese scholar at the London School of Economics.

The pause in oil revenues will also drive inflation higher, exacerbating the daily struggles of millions of civilians.

The World Food Program estimates that about 60% of the population is experiencing acute food shortages, while the World Bank finds that nearly 80% of people live below the poverty line.

Hard corruption and widespread corruption have given way to predatory economies, with armed groups setting up checkpoints to shake bribery and taxation.

If oil revenues dry up, civilians may not be able to repay any more.

“I'm not sure people are going to get squeezed out more,” Benson said.

Agent war?

Some critics and activists also fear that Sudan’s military deliberately shut down oil, forcing South Sudan to cut off all contact with the RSF and SPLM-N.

Yakani said the speculation caused some dissatisfaction among South Sudanese civilians.

Meanwhile, some supporters of the Sudanese army believe that as long as South Sudan provides any support for oil, they should not benefit from oil.

Al Jazeera previously reported that both the RSF and the Army recruited South Sudanese mercenaries to fight on their behalf.

“What is the Port of Sudan [the army] What you want is Juba's absolute distance from the help of RSF in any way, that's the complexity of the government [Kiir] Now,” Yakani told Al Jazeera.

“Most citizens of South Sudan, including myself, believe that South Sudan is becoming a land for the war between Sudan and their wars [regional] allies,” he added.

The Sudanese military also believes that the South Sudanese government is increasingly relying on regional supporters of the RSF to support its own security.

According to Boswell, Sudan's army leaders were particularly frightened when Uganda, which believed to be supporting RSF, deployed troops in March to support Kiel.

In addition, Sudan's military repeatedly accused the United Arab Emirates of arming the RSF.

The UAE has repeatedly denied the allegations, and they have also been filed by UN experts and Amnesty International.

The UAE's foreign ministry previously told Al Jazeera in an email.

Despite tensions between the Sudanese army and the UAE, analysts say Juba may demand large loans from the UAE to keep it patronized if Sudanese army does not quickly resume oil exports.

“[Sudan’s army] “There have been concerns about whether the UAE will lend a lot of money to South Sudan,” Boothwell said.

He added: “I think a large amount of UAE loans to South Sudan will be the red line for the Sudanese army.”