00:00 Speaker a
Americans feel better about the outlook for inflation. This is one of the key takeaways from the June preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. So what we see here is inflation expectations. They were at a height of 40 years, the highest level since the early 1980s, and in June, those expectations fell as consumers digested some of the rollbacks of tariffs. So we expect inflation to drop by 6.6% in June to 5.1% in June. Interestingly, it is pointed out that the five-year expectations have also been lowered, from 4.2% to 4.1%. But, I think the most interesting thing about this chart is why we focus on today’s chart, which is really a chart that tells the story of the market over the past month and a half and why stocks have increased. This is a better story than fear data, right? We fear inflation will soar to one of the highest levels in decades. Now, consumers are starting to feel better about it. We can replace this chart with tariffs. Our tariffs are expected to soar. Now they are back. We can replace this chart with the probability of recession. The probability of recession soars. Now it's back. So, this is a better example of the data than fear, the peak fear we had in April, and it is one of the key factors that bring us back to the S&P 500 record high.
02:24 Speaker b
I like that. So, in fact, this is just a graph of everything. To do this, we can run the same lines continuously over and over.
02:31 Speaker a
Everything is back, it always returns to a chart.
