Everyone from venture capitalists to news media to U.S. energy secretary seems to be hyping up small modular reactors, key to unlocking the nuclear Renaissance and addressing climate change and the craziest demand for power in modern data centers.
On Monday, the California Parliament’s Natural Resources Commission will consider a bill to repeal the state’s long-term suspension of nuclear plants that would have been possible until sustainable plans are developed to deal with radioactive waste. The bill has been defeated several times in the past, which will make an exception to the dream of small modular reactors (SMRs) in the current era of nuclear advocates.
With Diablo Canyon in two operating reactors near San Luis Obispo, the SMR is usually below 300 MW. These smaller nuclear weapons have received a lot of attention in recent years, mainly because modern reactors are so expensive that almost everything has been stopped in the United States and Europe.
The sad fact is Small reactors have little meaning Better than a big man. Trump's tariffs only make math even more frustrating.
I have been analyzing nuclear power since 1993, when I served as a special assistant to the Deputy Secretary, starting for a five-year period at the Ministry of Energy. I helped him oversee the nuclear and energy efficiency and renewable energy programs I conducted in 1997.
So, I'm very clear that the hype is built on Quicksand, especially the seven decades of history of failure. As 2015 Analysis “In the past, economics killed small nuclear power plants – and it may continue to do so.” 2014 Journal Articles Conclusion, many “building support for small modular reactors” propose “rhetorical visions full of fantasy elements.”
But, is there no nuclear Renaissance? No. The Vogtle Plant in Georgia is the only new nuclear power plant successfully built and started in the United States in recent decades. The total cost is $35 billion, or about $16 million per megawatt of capacity, far exceeding methane (natural gas) or solar and wind with battery storage.
Therefore, Vogtle is “the most expensive power plant ever” with its power costs “amazing” Power Magazine. Georgia taxpayer Each Pay $1,000 Before they even gained any powers, their bills are Up more than $200 each year.
The high construction costs and the resulting high energy costs explain why nuclear energy had a share of 17% in the mid-1990s, but fell to 9.1% in 2024.
Over the decades, economies of scale have driven reactor growth by more than 1,000 megawatts. The idea that abandoning this logic would result in a lower cost per megawatt is magical thinking, contrary to technical rationality, historical reality and common sense.
even Federal Department of Energy's September report – Funding for SMR development – Cost per megawatt is more than 50% higher than large reactors. That's why there are only three operating SMRs: one in China, with a cost of more than 300%, in Russia, with a cost of more than 400%. March, Financial Times Analysis Tagged as “the most expensive energy” of such a small reactor.
Indeed, the first SMRs (by Nuscale) that the U.S. was cancelled in 2023, with its costs soaring to $20 million per megawatt, higher than Vogtle. Bill Gates told CBS in 2024 that the full cost of his 375 MW natrium reactor will be “Nearly $10 billion,” the price per megawatt is close to $30 million – almost twice Vogtle.
All of this has been done against the backdrop of historically cheap natural gas and has rapidly expanded the generation of renewable energy sources. All competition with nuclear power events: 2023 Columbia University Report Conclusion is that “if the cost of a new nuclear ends up being much higher”, with a cost of more than $6.2 million per megawatt, “It seems unlikely that a new nuclear will play a lot (if any) role in the U.S. power sector.” RIP
SMR is just one of several false promises that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars by 2040 to 2040, including hydrogen energy and direct air carbon capture.
But nuclear power is the original exaggerated energy technology. When he served as chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, Robert Downey Jr.Too cheap. ”
However, when I joined the Ministry of Energy in 1993, nuclear power costs had steadily increased for decades. Since then, the prices of new reactors have been rising and now they are the most expensive power supplies. But solar, wind and battery prices have been falling, becoming the cheapest. Indeed, these three technologies make up an amazing 93% of the U.S. utilities scale Power generation capacity will increase in 2025. The rest is natural gas.
China is the only country to build many new nuclear power plants in the next five years – about 35 GW. Less than 1% of these projected capacity comes from small reactors, while more than 95% of reactors over 1,100 MW. Now compare all of this with the 350 GW of sun and wind Chinese construction – Just in 2024.
For the United States, President Trump's unstable tariffs make small modular reactors more risky bets. If the U.S. economy shrinks, so will the demand for new electric power plants. Inflation and higher interest rates twin threats increase the risk of worse construction costs.
In addition, China, Canada and other trading partners also provide the key supply chain elements required to mass-produce SMR – mass production is key to sales pitches, claiming that this technology is affordable. This logic only applies when all actual SMR venture capital fails, and only one or two ultimately pursue mass production.
So, can we ask us to stop talking about small modular reactors as solutions to our power needs and to recover to build real solutions – wind, solar and batteries? They are cheaper and cleaner- they are actually modular.
Joseph Romm is the former acting assistant minister, andThe Hype About Hydrogen: Fake promises and real solutions in the game to save the climate. ”
