Drought, rising prices and reduced cattle herds weaken North Africa's Eid al-Adha this year

Casablanca, Morocco (AP) – A flock of sheep once stitched through Morocco's mountain pastures, spread across the vast plateaus of Algeria and grazed on Tunisia's green coastline. However, the cascading effects of climate change have triggered shortages throughout the region, which is shocking as Muslims in North Africa celebrate Eid.

Every year, Muslims massacre sheep in memory of the passage of the Quran, in which the prophet Ibrahim prepares to sacrifice his son as an act of obedience to God, who intervenes and replaces the child with sheep.

But this year’s price increases and supply declines are raising new challenges, breeders and potential buyers said.

Last week, in a market in the suburb of Algiers, breeders explained to angry customers that their prices were rising as everything needed to increase sheep, including animal feed, transportation and veterinary care, was growing.

Slimane Aouadi stood looking at the livestock pen and discussed with his wife whether to buy sheep to celebrate this year's Eid.

“It's the same look and weight as the sheep I bought last year, but it costs $75,” Aouadi, a doctor, told the Associated Press.

With inflation soaring, sheep selling for more than $1,200, which is high in a country where average monthly income hovers below $270.

Tradition fits reality

Any interference to ritual sacrifice can be sensitive, a blow to religious traditions and anger at the rise and the hardship they bring.

Therefore, Morocco and Algeria have taken unprecedented measures.

Earlier this year, Algerian officials announced plans to import a staggering 1 million sheep to cover the domestic shortage. Morocco's king Mohammed VI violated tradition and urged Muslims to avoid the sacrifice of Eid. Local officials throughout the kingdom closed the livestock market, preventing customers from buying sheep for this year’s celebrations.

“Our country faces climate and economic challenges that have resulted in a significant decline in livestock population. Sacrifice in these difficult circumstances will cause real harm to most of our people, especially those with limited incomes,” the king is also the supreme religious authority of Morocco, he wrote in a letter in February.

Trucks have unloaded thousands of sheep in new markets in Algiers and surrounding suburbs. Lotfi Gharnaout, an agricultural economist at the University of Toulouse, told state-run newspaper El Moudjahid that Algeria's import strategy could sell for between $23 billion and $260 million, not even meeting national demand.

Sparse pasture

The long-abandoned North Africa region has long been growing populations, with few job opportunities outside of abandonment and agriculture. But after seven years of drought, it is now shrinking due to the lack of rainfall and rising prices of feed. Experts say drought conditions have deteriorated, shepherds grazing their flocks and farmers grow cereals for sale as animal feed.

The supply has decreased, and the prices have exceeded the scope of middle-class families who have historically purchased sheep for slaughter.

Moroccan economist Najib Akesbi said the shrinking cattle herds are directly caused by vegetation losses in grazing areas. The Ukrainian war has exacerbated the prolonged drought, which has exacerbated inflation.

“Most livestock farming in North Africa is pastoral, meaning it relies purely on natural cultivation, such as wild plants and forests, as well as vegetation growing from rainwater,” said Akesbi, a former professor at Hassan II's School of Agronomics and Veterinary Medicine.

For breeders, livestock is a bank, and the assets they sell to pay for expenses and repay debts, he added. Breeders have been drought and rising feed costs for years, and their reserves have been drained.

Suppressed herdsmen

Acharf Majdoubi, president of the Moroccan Sheep and Goat Breeders Association, said breeders had to spend more on supplementing feed. Over the years, pastures nourish almost all the sheep flocks need, but in the dry years it can be as low as half or a third of the feed needed.

“We have to make up for the rest by buying feed like straw and barley,” he said.

They not only need more feed. Prices of barley, straw and alfalfa (many of which must be imported) have also soared.

In Morocco, barley and straw prices are tripled as before the drought, while alfalfa prices have more than doubled.

“The future of this industry is very difficult. Breeders leave the countryside to immigrate to the city, and some people will never come back,” said Achraf Majdoubi.

__Associated Press writers in Algeria contributed the report.