Economists sound like 100 days on Trump's tariff policy

President Donald Trump is running for his second term to lower prices, create jobs and impose tough tariffs on imports, especially from China.

Last fall, he told the Chicago Economic Club audience that “the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs for me.” However, in the first few months of his tenure, it was unclear whether Trump could or should have implemented the harsh reciprocity tariffs he announced in April to dozens of countries.

Now, 100 days after his second term, economists told Fox News Numbers that they believe these proposed mutual tariffs are politically motivated, unnecessary, and fail to earn from the U.S. trading partners that Trump has been hoping for.

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Instead, they warn that Trump’s tariffs could stumble billions of dollars in trade to stop between the world’s two largest economies, undermine global supply chains and risk putting the U.S. economy into a serious downturn or recession.

Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, told Fox News in an interview that when Trump took office, the chances of a recession “may be about 10%.” “Now, they are about 55 percent.”

It is unclear whether Trump will continue to work through these unwelcome tariffs, which are planned to force in early July. In the near future, uncertainty and volatility remain.

Traders worked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on March 28, 2025, and Donald Trump's trade war escalated. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Short-term tariff impact

Trump announced tariffs on April 2, called “Liberation Day.” The announcement includes a 10% universal baseline tariff and plans to impose larger tariffs on dozens of countries, including China.

These new import taxes immediately fell freely in the stock market, which triggered one of the largest single-day S&P 500 losses since World War II and prompted deep and unnecessary uncertainty about possible next moves.

“The only thing that happened that made the recession so high, so fast, was the chaos coming out of the White House,” Wolft said.

Trump then suspended 90 days of reciprocity tariffs to encourage the government to trade with the country and encourage more investment in U.S. manufacturing. Even so, under the new tariff system, some prices have risen and are expected to be costly.

Uncertainty also plays a role. Trump's tariff announcement in April prompted many large container ships to suddenly stop freight to the United States earlier this month before returning to its original port. This means that as early as next month, more and more consumers will see prices for daily products rising, which could be at some large retailers like Walmart or Target.

David H. Feldman, an economist and professor at William & Mary College, said in an interview that these price increases were “not coming tomorrow, but it could take some time as scarcity develops and U.S. retailers have to find other resources.”

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President Donald Trump held a speech ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C. on April 15, 2025 (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Trump said the tariffs would target foreign competitors and reduce the trade deficit, but the expenses fell primarily on workers and middle-class Americans who bought most of the imports.

Mrs. Wol said Trump's focus on the trade “deficit” is based on a common misunderstanding.

“It means we sell a small amount to China, and they sell a large amount to us,” he explained. But for every dollar bill in China, the United States gets what Americans want to buy, such as T-shirts.

“We have a one dollar deficit – but we have the rest.”

Potential pulse

There are few signs that Trump's tariffs will bring the benefits he seeks, such as opening up U.S. production or getting better trade deals, especially deals with Asian countries.

Instead, experts warn these countries that may bypass the U.S. market and provide chains over time.

“Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a senior non-resident researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in an interview that if these tariffs remain in place, there would be little trade between the United States and China.

In the long run, annual trade between the two countries has a risk of approximately $650 billion and its impact on global trade.

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President Donald Trump, leftist and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Feldman said Trump's tariffs also discarded decades of international understanding that have devalued trade disputes.

Feldman's research focuses on global trade policy, tells Fox News Digital that the United States is “transforming from a system based on mutually accepted rules of behavior to a system that does not act as its anchor.” He believes that this shift allows the government to target foreign countries individually and provide selective tariffs for companies and industries if they're bidding,” he said.

“The United States is now the owner of Shakedown.”

President Donald Trump expressed his stance to media members before he landed on the Marine Corps on the South Lawn of the White House on April 3, 2025. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Next step

After strong market opposition, Trump appears to be eased by his proposed 145% reciprocal tariff, which has vowed to take its own retaliatory measures against U.S. goods.

Economists say he is more likely to do so if the economy becomes sour, or if the past is a precedent, he believes the number of polls has dropped sharply.

Nonetheless, any dehydration pathways are still uncertain. Just last week, China denied Trump asserting in an interview that he had reached “200 deals” on trade, he said the two countries were negotiating a tariff deal.

Economists believe Trump will partially cut tariffs by at least July, but warned that he is playing a high-risk edge game that could hit our consumers and businesses to the greatest extent possible.

“What I’m worried about is the direct impact of uncertainty is the business investment in the trade industry, leading to a recession,” Feldman said. “But if it passes on to a financial panic, it could get worse. If we go on a cash flight, all bets are closed.”

If that happens, we can slide into 2008 again, he said. ”

A TV broadcasts market news on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, April 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump refused to admit that his early days were beyond significant success.

In a recent interview with Time magazine, he touted his first 100 days as “very successful” and said “people [are] Writing this is the first month, the best first month, and the best third month for the president of the United States.

He regards the volatility of the stock market and the rise in inflation as temporary “market volatility” and calls it a “transition period” and it will escalate.

When asked if imports were as high as 50% in the year starting now, he would think it was a victory, Trump said he would.

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“Total victory,” he said.

“Everyone will benefit.”