Expert Tal Beeri discusses why religious directives were not granted, but if so, Hezbollah would have joined the war between Iran and Israel.
Expert Talbilli said Hezbollah avoided participating in the war between Israel and Iran due to lack of religious directives.
Beeri is the head of the research unit of the Northern Security Challenge Research Center of Alma. He published a detailed analysis titled “Why not join the war between Iran and Israel?” In it, Middle East experts challenged Hezbollah’s decision to avoid participating in the war on the Iranian side and discussed the gap between Hezbollah’s weaknesses and actual reality.
Biri pointed out: “There is a big gap between the existing Hezbollah’s so-called weakness and the actual reality.”
Religious directives, not deterrence
Billy discussed the conflict between June 13 and June 24, 2025 – “The Lion of Action Rising” – during which Israel was directly engaged to Iran. He argues that contrary to the general belief, Hezbollah is not in the fight due to deterrence or domestic pressure, but for a single reason: “It has not received religious directives.”
He stressed: “In the entire war against Iran, from June 13 to June 24, 2025, Hezbollah avoided the battle against Iran against Israel. Even as Israel continues its active “grass” activities in Lebanon, the implementation of its infrastructure and phase-out has been made against the group's infrastructure and phase-out.”
People gather in Tehran to mourn the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah during an Israeli air force strike in Lebanon in September. The author noted that the IAF also destroyed most of the Lebanon-based Iranian agents’ arsenal. (Credit: West Asia News Agency/Reuters)
Common explanations
Billy outlines Hezbollah’s restraint two most common explanations: First, pressures within Lebanon show that Hezbollah’s influence is weakening due to Lebanon’s social, political and economic challenges.
Second, Israel’s external deterrence-assertion Hezbollah is blocked by Israel’s military pressure and the consequences of past confrontations.
However, Billy found neither of these arguments sufficient: “The internal aspect must exist,” he admits. “However, relying on this argument overestimates its impact on Hezbollah's status and decision-making. The current narrative of Hezbollah's alleged weaknesses is very different from the actual situation.”
Internal support
Billy explained that Hezbollah’s civilian support structure, known as the Resistance Society, remains intact. The group’s Shia base, described as a “captive audience,” continues to benefit from the strong infrastructure operated by Hezbollah’s executive committee, operating simultaneously with the deteriorating people in Lebanon.
Billy admitted: “There are a lot of financial difficulties in supporting civilian reconstruction,” but insisted that the infrastructure still operates.
“Hezbollah can only be meaningfully influenced by the pressure from its Shia base. Is the pressure so high at the moment? The answer is no, mainly because of the 'captive listener' principle.”
He warned not to misread the group's current position: “The claims of being blocked Hezbollah create dangerous fantasies and bring us back to the days before October 7, 2023.”
Hezbollah's ideology remains the same
To strengthen his argument, Billy quotes Ibrahim al-Amin Al-Akhbarthe main media of Hezbollah. A week before the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, Al-Amin wrote: “The current round [Hezbollah’s fighting against Israel that began on October 8, 2023] It is just another stage of the war against Israel that must be destroyed. Hezbollah will work to rebuild its capabilities and restore its strength…”
Biri explained: “No peace. No compromise. There is only one ideology – endless armed resistance. The core of Hezbollah – armed resistance – is not a means, but an identity. Hezbollah stays here.”
He continued: “In the vocabulary of extremist ideology like Hezbollah (or Hamas), the word 'deterror' does not exist. The decision on launching military or terrorist actions is based on religious directives. Any related interest (in this case, rehabilitation, rehabilitation) is just a supportive factor in the decision-making process.”
Waiting for instructions
According to Bill, “There is no religious order to send religious orders to Hezbollah to join the war between Iran and Israel. According to reports, on the operational-military level, Iran’s pressure on Hezbollah has never appeared. It is not from Iran’s supreme leader and now, it is not from Iran’s supreme leader.
He argued that Hezbollah needed to rebuild (especially military) strengthened its options to avoid escalation:
“Hezbollah needs time. Hezbollah needs to 'rebuild quiet'. Therefore, its interest is to avoid a major escalation with Israel, which could seriously undermine its reconstruction efforts.”
Billy noted that Hezbollah's Hezbollah has incorporated the “grass” Israeli strategy into its current risk calculation:
“The current Israeli 'mowing' is something Hezbollah can absorb while still managing a reasonable reconstruction.”
Looking to the future
“We don't know why religious directives didn't come, or whether they were considered. But if it came, Hezbollah would join the war with Iran. In this case, the general saying of internal pressure or deterrence in Lebanon would collapse.”
In short, Billy stressed that Israel caused significant damage to Hezbollah's military capabilities, but did not destroy them. Despite growing challenges during the post-Iran war, Hezbollah’s efforts to rebuild and Rick’s efforts are underway.
He suggested that now, even at the expense of civilian services, existing resources may now be more used for military recovery, which is still a “captive audience.”
Billy concluded: “Hezbollah’s various departments are rebuilding and revising their operations plans to “reroute, resuscitate and even prepare infrastructure for terrorist activities against Israel, including in Lebanon and beyond.
“Given the orders – religious directives – Hezbollah could have joined the war with Iran, both in terms of Arsenal’s layoffs and operations and military capabilities.”
