Germany vows to strengthen militaryally, but rhetoric may be difficult to match reality
Within days of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Olaf Scholz announced ZeitenwendeOr a historical “turning point”. The then German Chancellor promised to provide more aid to Ukraine, take a tougher attitude to authoritarian countries, and quickly reduce Germany's dependence on Russian energy, thus ensuring a security shift.
This is a psychological turning point for a country plagued by the Nazi past, but is now expected to strengthen its biggest economic power against Europe, threatening the African continent.
But two years later, the German Foreign Relations Commission published a report saying that Schalz's transformation has not yet “realized meaningful change.”
Related: Germany and Ukraine with long-range weapons production agreement
Therefore, with a new minister, Zeitenwende Is this time real? There is no shortage of action or rhetoric. Since taking office three weeks ago, Friedrich Merz vowed that Germany would have the most powerful traditional army in Europe, presided over the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Berlin, visited Kiev and participated in the unveiling of the German army in Lithuania, the first German army in Germany since World War II. Crucially, he released the debt brakes and therefore released much-needed expenditures in the German military federal forces.
In his opening speech as Prime Minister, he promised to provide all the necessary financial resources for this. “Indeed, they actually demanded that,” Melz said in a government statement. He announced his intention to turn Germany from “dormant state to a leading medium force.” He has easily entered the role.
In Lithuania, he said: “Vilnius's protection is protection of Berlin. Our shared freedom has not ended on the geopolitical line – it ends where we stop defending it.” It was a place from a country that was resigned in criticism until 2011, when its federal president resigned in criticism to show that military action may be needed in an emergency to “protect our interests.”
But not everything is going well. On Monday, Meers announced that there will be no restrictions on weapons provided to Ukraine by the UK, France, Germany and the United States, and that Ukraine can now conduct “long-range fires.” This means that Germany's precious 500km range of Taurus missiles were finally offered, just as Merz swears when he objected. This means that the strategic bridges in Moscow and Crimea are also vulnerable to these destructive bombs.
Moscow's response was immediate. “After we celebrate the 80th anniversary of Hitler's anniversary, the voice of the current German leader will regain its position as the leading military force in Europe. History has clearly taught these people.”
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reminded the world of Nazi Merz's father's past and again warned of the threat of World War III.
The reality that Meers offers to Ukraine is more complex, and the steps he can take to meet NATO's broader demands for the expanding German army.
The day after his “unlimited” commitment, he was forced to speak out for a long time before announcing whether he would encounter a promise offered by the opposition to Thorrus. Strong suspicion is that Social Democratic Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil – Merz's alliance partner – stopped Merz. This episode reminiscent of paralysis that disfigured the previous coalition government.
It may also be the office, and Melz has become more aware of the complexity, including the impact of the Ukrainians training their use for six months and the impact of German soldiers being trained within Ukraine. The government has now retreated to the strategic ambiguity of what he is going to do and is focused on providing Ukraine with partnerships to jointly build missiles.
Melz's allies say the episode is not entirely futile. Thomas Röwekamp of the Christian Democratic Union, who chairs the Federal Government's Defense Council, told the Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper that by rejecting scope restrictions, Merz “removed an argument that prevented Taurus' delivery”. This is not a “commitment” to Taurus delivery, but the reason for the previous rejection has been “deleted”.
The greater risk for Melz is that his remarks don’t match the reality of what he can deliver, and it will take many years to rebuild a German army after decades of neglect.
For example, in 2021, Germany agreed in 2030 to provide 10 brigades to NATO – usually consisting of about 5,000 soldiers. Currently, it has eight brigades, with its ninth establishment in Lithuania starting in 2027.
Overall, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said about 182,000 soldiers were in service in the troops, with an additional 60,000 available reserve personnel. By contrast, during the Cold War, soldiers from Bundeswehr could accommodate up to 800,000 reserve personnel. By 2031, the number of active soldiers will grow to 203,000.
Nevertheless, no matter how long it happened, the German partner made any mistakes and had mentally adapted to the return of Germany as the main military force in Europe.
