Hamas will not collapse, even if two sinners die

Sinwars helped build Hamas into the genocide of October 7. However, their deaths seem to have come and have not changed the behavior of the organization.

Gaza Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar was killed on May 13. His death is now confirmed. In the past ten days, there have been rumors that this is true. However, Hamas does not seem to change its behavior in Gaza.

The group continued to stick to the central camps in Nuseirat, Maghazi, Bureij and Deir Al-Balah. It still has fighter jets in Gaza City. It also has some limited control over other parts of Gaza.

Hamas lost the entire commander Ingaza. In many cases, its brigade and battalion commanders have been killed more than once. It replaced them and they were killed again. Sometimes, the commander may be replaced on October 7, not only killed, but also replaced.

The group's company commanders were also cut. This is based on IDF reports and other assessments. The report may be rosy, and Hamas is in a better position than it looks.

Israel's mistake in Gaza

For example, Israel has made a mistake in the past assessment of Gaza's success. After the 11th day of 2021, it was reported that the Hamas “metro” in the Gaza Tunnel was restored to “year”. These reports are incorrect. The subway obviously did not suffer much damage, and Hamas repaired the October 2023 attack in time.

Hamas always became stronger after the war with Israel. In the past, it also replaced many leaders. It has returned from the loss of Sheikh Yassin and IDF air strikes and other strikes such as Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi. Mahmoud Abdel Rauf al-Mabhouh was the key to buying weapons for Hamas, who was also killed in 2010. Hamas leaders come and go.

Sinwars helped build Hamas into the genocide of October 7. However, their deaths seem to have come and have not changed the behavior of the organization.

Yahya Sinwar was hunted and killed in October 2024 in Tal al-Sultan near Rafa. When he was killed, he was alone. His last few comrades were dispersed. His death reminds us of the death of Persian leader Darius III, who died from Alexander the Great. He also died after melting in the Empire and his men. However, Hamas seems unwilling to surrender.

This is why these tactical confusion over the tactical victory of the Hamas leader in Gaza. Israel has outstanding excellence in hunting down Hamas leaders and eliminating Hamas commanders. However, the larger strategy does not seem to have achieved tactical success. This means that Hamas doesn't seem to be really in trouble because of Hamas' loss of his leader. Now, as things change on the ground in Gaza, this may change. IDF's new plan, GIDEON's tank should force attacks and grab the ground, rather than IDF's raid strategy in 2024.

Ceasefire Scope Agreement Discussion

But the lack of collapse of Hamas cadres in the Central Camp is still shocking. The group appears to be recruiting many young people who are reluctant to stand and fight. Its arsenal was exhausted. It doesn't seem to be much. However, it holds 58 hostages and seems to continue to be able to communicate with the leaders of Doha in terms of hostage transactions.

In fact, despite the loss of leadership, Hamas' terminology does not seem to change. The January 2025 deal is mainly similar to the deal Hamas wants in 2024. The deal discussed now is similar to Hamas, which was offered in March.

Hamas has something to want. It wants to end the war. However, it never seems to be on the verge of collapse. Even if it is, the death of its leaders does not seem to be exploited with any form of Klauswicz-like strategy. Instead, Israel has been tactical success, without a clear post-war strategy or Gaza's exit strategy, or even a way to replace Hamas with other types of civilian authority. Hamas thinks all it has to do is wait, and it will maintain some kind of control. It can then find the next SINWAR to replace the person who came before.