In retail, crisis planning once meant preparing for wildfires, hurricanes, floods, or recently a pandemic. But in 2025, another force of force majeure emerged, not from nature, but from politics: tariffs. Unstable tariff policies for U.S. retailers of all sizes Related to Trump's second term agenda, it feels not like economic strategy, but rather a divine turbulent act.
Navigation pricing, planning and logistics have become a high-risk guess game. When policy changes are announced through Trump’s social media account, the trade alliance can dissolve overnight, with tariff schedules faster than quarterly budget cycles. Businesses do not operate under a stable set of rules, and the rules keep changing, while they fly blindly.
Many see new tariff threats coming as Trump reappears as Republican leader in 2024 Trade protectionism remains a minority from afar Ideological crossing During Trump's career. Still, the speed of threats and the speed of the improvisational style they launched Catch many executives off guard. (Trump's stance on tariffs has happened several times since this article began to take shape.)
If Trump’s first term teaches global business leaders, it is that constant recalibration (rather than the policy itself) poses the greatest threat to business stability. The observer talked with dozens of retail CEOs, founders, consumer experts and supply chain strategists, and a message was loud and clear: retaining options is no longer just a strategic advantage, but a survival skill.
Tariff threats reshape risk planning
From Wall Street to Main Street, companies are not only about preparing for influence—they actively redesign operations and provide chains to withstand what many now call “Trump Force Majeure.” The phrase has not yet entered the legal or contractual language, but it has become an industry shorthand for growing volatility businesses across sectors.
“I saw the relevant conversation pop up,” Bill London, an international attorney for Kimura London & White, told Observer. “The term Trump force majeure' may be informal, but the interruption is true. Businesses are revisiting contracts to insert renegotiation clauses and price adjustment mechanisms triggered by tariff transfers. This is a safer strategy than hoping that “force force majeure” language covers them.”
This reality is highlighted in a recent conversation with Charlie Youakim, CEO and co-founder of Sezzle, a publicly traded purchase-paid style (BNPL) platform that serves thousands of retailers. With its window into a wide range of consumer behavior and businessman activities, Youakim has become the leader in retail.
“We sit in a position where we can see the pattern appear,” Youakim told Observer. “As far as we know, many pure e-commerce retailers (especially those relying on Chinese manufacturing) are scrambling to the fore. Some are reworking logistics, while others are reworking inventory in flight.”
While the Sezzle itself may be somewhat thermally insulated, Youakim has not seen any signs based on widespread distress. “There is no panic, but there is urgency. Everyone is adjusting – some are quiet, some are positive. It's a moment of recalibration, not a crisis,” he said.
He also reminded who felt the economic change first. “The media calls it a recession when the upper middle class cancels holidays or reduces luxury goods. But our users – Giger workers, blue-collar families, recent graduates – they live in the recession every day.”
Small brands compete, while insulated players seize the advantage
In Minnesota Faribault MillCEO Ross Widmoyer has adopted a hyper-native model that proves to be very resilient through a combination of history and contingency. From wool to labor, almost all inputs are sourced domestically – the lion's labor share lives within a 15-mile radius of the factory.
“We didn't consider tariffs or globally volatile design businesses,” Widmoyer told Observer. “But because a lot of the things we do – our materials, our labor, our supply chains – are all domestically, we find ourselves unusually insulated and incredibly agile at this moment.”
Faribault Mill employs about 100 employees and earns nearly $20 million in annual revenue. It has expanded its products to include clothing, accessories and high-profile design collaborations, with partners ranging from major sports brands to partners such as pop culture icons and more peanut figure. The company owns and operates its entire production infrastructure, including looms and finishing equipment, making it vulnerable to supply chain shocks. And this insulation allows companies to do something that most retail brands can hardly imagine: lower prices amid economic turmoil.
In contrast, with entrepreneurs like Steve Skillins, South Carolina, BusyBoxa small manufacturer of small smart furniture. Faced with rapid component costs due to tariffs, skills are being closed. “I've stopped advertising. I'm going to put down the contractor. No capital, no SBA [Small Business Administration] Help, no roadmap,” he told Observer.
The basic truth: Most retail businesses, especially those with annual revenues of less than $25 million – do not have the time or the necessary resources to overhaul the supply chain in a short period of time. They lack lobbyists and legitimate firepower. What they have is the daily survival calculation.
Jason Wingate, Co-founder ZlumberThis is the best-selling bed accessories brand on Amazon, frankly, “You can’t say it no longer. You have to build structural flexibility in how you operate. This means a deep step toward diversified suppliers, agile freight partners and manufacturing options.”
China's dilemma
For many companies relying on foreign procurement, China has long been an unparalleled hub of scale, efficiency and manufacturing. It is no exaggeration to say that China is the backbone of the global retail supply chain. But now that Beijing is reappearing in Trump’s crosshairs again, this dependence looks increasingly unstable.
question? It's not as easy as it sounds. These supply chains have been built for decades and relaxing them brings higher costs, inconsistent regulatory regimes and fragile infrastructure. Alternatives such as Vietnam, India and Mexico may be on the rise, but they have their own serious restrictions.
Lee Mayer, CEO Safe haven brandis an online interior decoration store with creative design services, skeptical about rapid restoration. “With this myth, we can only do everything onshore and land,” she told the observer. “It's not realistic. We've seen prices rise by more than 30%. If people knew half of the fees were tariffs, would people still buy $2,000 sofas?”
Compare with it David's Bride, The largest bridal retailer in the United States, the retailer has proactively restructured its global supply chain and expects tariff fluctuations. Led by newly cast CEO Kelly Cook, the retailer moved its Chinese-based products from 50% to a recent tariff announcement that it had been well above 30%, relocating production to facilities in Vietnam, India, the Philippines and beyond. The same is true for Mattel, a maker of Barbie dolls and hot-wheel cars, whose manufacturing dependence on China has dropped to 40% in recent years, compared with an industry average of 80%.
Ben Koren, Brooklyn-based CEO frameThe online picture frame store, before Trump was sworn in for the second semester, took more dramatic steps to start a re-trip to production a few years ago. “Now, 90% of our costs are based on the U.S. yes, it's more expensive, but it's easier to predict,” he told Observer.
From lobbying to redesign, businesses build for instability
Overall, companies are responding in different ways: Some are shifting production, others establish structural flexibility in their operations, tend to innovate, and even engage in policy advocacy.
Rebel founder Emily Hosie is an online platform that resells open and shipped baby gear and home essentials – lobbying for tariff exemptions on baby products. “These are not luxury goods. It's required by law. Families have stretched out, and it's just punitive,” Hosey told Observer. “As retailers, it's our responsibility to work together, promote exemptions and stand up for our community.”
Keegan Nesvacil, CEO of Woodland Tools, produces gardening and cutting tools, The “elastic design” model is described. The company produces a wide range of gardening and cutting tools that integrate customer feedback and supply chain data into a rapid rotation. “As a result of the complex supply chain demands created by recent tariffs, we have redesigned several products to use alternative materials that are not subject to tariffs, transfer components sourcing closer to homes, and modularly designed so that we can exchange or go out based on availability.” Observer.
Many large brands have chosen Inventory Add more heavy tariffs before they come into effect. Nevertheless, preload inventory only applies to some. Can store products with shelf-stable; seasonal goods and perishables cannot. What companies need is clarity, which is still elusive.
There is no way forward – an increasing recognition that “Trump Force Majeure” requires vision, adaptability and the willingness to rethink old scripts. Call it “Trump Force Majeure,” or just the new normal–resilience now depends on agility, selectivity and awareness of the lack of cookie track scripts. The endured business will be for the purpose of bending rather than breaking.
