As the conflict between India and Pakistan escalates, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on Thursday that “basically, it has nothing to do with us”. He suggested that the United States could advise both sides, but this was not a fight for the United States.
However, within 24 hours, Mr. Vance and Mr. Marco Rubio found themselves trapped in details during the first week of their dual roles as national security adviser and secretary of state. The reason was what prompted Bill Clinton to push Bill Clinton to deal with another major conflict between two long-term enemies in 1999: fear that it might be nullified soon.
Evidence driving Mr Vance and Mr Rubio to take action shows that Pakistan and the Indian Air Force have begun a serious melee, and Pakistan has sent 300 to 400 drones to Indian territory to explore its air defense. But the most important reason for concern is that the explosions hit Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, a garrison city adjacent to Islamabad, late Friday.
The base is a key device, one of the central transport centers in the Pakistani army and home to air refueling capabilities, which will make Pakistani combatants grow taller and taller. However, this is also not far from the headquarters of the Pakistan Strategic Planning Department, which oversees and protects the country's nuclear arsenal, which is now believed to now include about 170 or more warheads. The warhead itself is believed to be spread across the country.
Fierce battles between India and Pakistan broke out in the terrorist attacks in Kashmir on April 22, a border area between the two countries. On Saturday morning, President Trump announced that the two countries agreed to a ceasefire.
A former U.S. official with a former U.S. official on Saturday pointed out that Pakistan’s deepest fear was the beheading of its nuclear command. The former official said the missile strike against Nur Khan could have been explained as warning India could do it.
It is unclear whether there is US intelligence indicating the rapid conflict, perhaps a nuclear escalation. At least in public, the only obvious nuclear signal comes from Pakistan. Local media reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened a meeting of the State Command, a group that made decisions on how and when to use nuclear weapons.
The body was founded in 2000 and is nominally chaired by the Prime Minister and includes senior civilians and military chiefs. In fact, the driving force behind the group was General Syed Asim Munir, the leader of the army.
But Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif denied that the group had ever met. He spoke on Pakistan TV on Saturday before the ceasefire was announced, acknowledging that there was a nuclear option, but said: “We should see it as a very distant possibility; we shouldn't even discuss it.”
It is being discussed in the Pentagon, and by Friday morning, the White House had apparently determined that some public statements and some calls to officials in Islamabad and Delhi were not enough. The interventions in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have little impact.
“We are worried about nuclear forces colliding and major conflicts,” Mr. Vance also said in an interview with Fox News, adding: “What we can do is encourage these people to lower them a little bit.”
According to a person familiar with the unpublicly spoken incident, the government has raised serious concerns in the government following the interview that the conflict has a risk of spiral-spiral out of control.
The pace of strikes and counterattacks is accelerating. Although India initially focused on the so-called “known terrorist camps” related to the armed group Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group blamed the April attack but is now targeting Pakistani military bases.
The Trump administration is also concerned that the demotion information does not reach senior officials on both sides.
Therefore, U.S. officials decided that his wife Usha, who returned from India a few weeks ago, had parents who were immigrants from India and should call Narendra Modi directly. His message is that the United States has assessed the high possibility of a sharp escalation of violence, which could be trapped in a full-scale war.
Through the U.S. account, Mr. Vance urged Mr. Modi to consider alternatives to ongoing strikes, including potential off-road vehicles that U.S. officials believe Pakistanis are acceptable. Mr. Modi listened but promised no idea.
According to the State Department, Mr. Rubio spoke with General Munier, whose new position as national security adviser made the conversation easier. For the past 25 years, the White House has often (even quietly) served as a direct channel for the Pakistan Army, the country's most powerful institution.
Mr Rubio also called Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and India’s Nationalist Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, who met in Washington on January 22.
It is unclear how persuasive he was at least initially.
Instead of a press conference on the contents of these calls on Saturday, the State Department gave a brief description of the dynamic dialogue between Mr. Rubio and South Asian leaders. However, the ongoing call from Friday night to Saturday early appears to lay the foundation for the ceasefire.
A senior Pakistani intelligence official has no right to publicly comment on the negotiations’ evaluations, which in the past 48 hours, particularly Mr Rubio’s interventions to announce American participation to seal the agreement. But as of Saturday night, there were reports that cross-border shootings were still continuing.
Prime Minister Mr. Sharif proposed a role focusing on the US president. He wrote on X: “We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role in peace in the region. Pakistan thanks the United States for promoting this outcome, which we have accepted for regional peace and stability.”
By contrast, India has not acknowledged any involvement in the United States.
It is not clear that the ceasefire will be held, or the damage caused may not trigger more retribution. According to some accounts, Pakistan has dropped five Indian planes. (India has not commented on its losses yet.)
The senior official said the Pakistan Intelligence Agency evaluated India's attempt to lure Islamabad beyond its defensive response. The official said India hopes Pakistan uses its own F-16 fighter jets in the retaliation attack so that they can try to shoot down once. The jets were sold by the United States, as Pakistan is still officially regarded as a “major non-NATO ally.”
Senior Pakistani intelligence officer said U.S. intervention is needed to get both sides back from the brink of war.
“The last move comes from the president,” the official said.
