Parisa Hafezi and Angus McDowall
DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) – Iran's 86-year-old top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cuts down on increasingly lonely figures.
According to five people familiar with his decision-making process, Khamenei has seen his main military and security adviser being killed by Israeli air strikes, leaving major loopholes in his inner circle and increasing the risk of strategic errors.
One of these sources who regularly attend meetings with Khamenei makes the risk of misunderstanding Iran on defense and internal stability issues “extremely dangerous.”
Several senior military commanders have been killed since Friday, including the main adviser of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite military force of Iran: Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Guard, and its Aerospace Administration Director Amir Ali Hajizadeh is responsible for Iran's ballistic missile program and Spymaster Mohammad Kazemi.
The people said these were part of the inner circle of the supreme leader, which included advisors composed of guard commanders, pastors and politicians, including three leaders who attended or attended meetings of major issues, said the sources said there were two officials who regularly attended.
All said the loose group would meet temporarily when Khamenei's office contacted relevant consultants to gather at his compound in Tehran to discuss a major decision. They added that the member was characterized by unwavering ideology with him and the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei was imprisoned before the 1979 revolution and was hit hard by a bomb before becoming a leader in 1989.
Under the Iranian government system, he has the power to declare war, and can appoint or dismiss senior figures, including military commanders and judges.
According to a source at the meeting, Khamenei made a final decision on important matters, although he values advice and focuses on various perspectives and often seeks other information from counselors.
“About Khamenei, you can say two things: He is very stubborn, but also very cautious. He is very cautious. That's why he has been in power,” said Alex Vatanka, director of Iran's IQ in Washington.
“Khamenei can do basic cost-benefit analysis, which is fundamentally more important than anything else: regime survival.”
Khamenei's son
The focus of survival was repeatedly tested. Khamenei deployed the Revolutionary Guards and its affiliated Basij militia to quell national protests in 1999, 2009 and 2022.
But while security forces have been able to surpass demonstrators and restore state rule, years of Western sanctions have caused widespread economic pain, which analysts say could ultimately threaten internal unrest.
Insiders and analysts say the bet on air strikes on nuclear and military sites and personnel, Khamenei, facing an escalating war with Israel, has barely been high.
Five people familiar with Khamenei's decision-making process emphasized that other insiders who have not yet been targeted by the Israeli strike remain important and influential, including top advisers on political, economic and diplomatic issues.
Khamenei appointed these advisers to deal with the problems they arose, extending his coverage directly to various institutions spanning military, security, cultural, political and economic fields, two sources said.
Sources say this approach operates in the bodies of the president-elect, including in institutions, meaning that Khamenei's office is often involved not only in the country's biggest problems, but even in the implementation of secondary measures.
Sources say his son Mojtaba has become increasingly important over the past 20 years, and this has become increasingly central in the process.
Sources said some insiders believe Mojtaba is a potential successor to his older father and has established close ties with the Guard, which has added leverage to Iran's political and security institutions.
Sources say Ali Asghar Hejazi, vice chairman of political security affairs in Khamenei's office, was involved in sensitive security decisions and is often described as Iran's most powerful intelligence official.
Meanwhile, Khameneni's office head Mohammad Golpayegani, as well as former Iranian foreign ministers Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazi, and former speaker Ali Larijani, remain credible for the diplomatic and family political issues of the core defense.
Nevertheless, the loss of the Revolutionary Guard Commander still put him at the center of the Supreme Leader since he became the Supreme Leader in 1989 and has been at the center of the Supreme Leader since he became the Supreme Leader and Iran's regional strategy.
Under the leadership of the elected president, the regular army command, through the Ministry of Defense, answered personally by Khamenei, ensuring the best military equipment for their land, air and marine branches and giving its commanders the main national posts.
As he faced one of the most dangerous moments in Islamic Republic history, Khamenei found himself further isolated by the losses of other major advisers in the region, as Iran's “Axis of Resistance” alliance had been hammered by Israel.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah personally approached the Iranian leader and was killed by Israeli air strikes in September last year, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by rebels in December.
(Edited by Parisa Hafezi and Angus McDowall; Pravin Char)
