Dubai, United Arab Emirates (AP) – President Donald Trump campaigned to free the United States from foreign wars, but soon convinced him to directly aid Israel, shooting down with B-2 Stealth bombers and Tomahawk Cruise launched by Sumpersarine.
In addition to the direct impact of the attack on helping to end the 12-day war, experts say Donald Trump’s decision to use force against another country will certainly reverberate in the Asia-Pacific region of Washington Priority Theater.
“Trump's strike against Iran shows that he is not afraid of using military power – which will convey information about Trump's style to North Korea, and even to China and Russia,” said Duyeon Kim, senior analyst at the New American Security Center in Seoul, South Korea.
“Before the strike, Pyongyang and Beijing might think Trump is risk aversion, especially based on his actions, even though his first president had some difficult topics,” Kim said.
China, North Korea and Russia all condemn US strikes
Ten days after the war between Israel and Iran, Trump made a dangerous decision to step in, attacking three nuclear sites on June 22 with U.S. fire in an effort to destroy the country's nuclear program at one time, while negotiations between Washington and Tehran are still ongoing.
The attacks prompted a retaliatory strike by Iran on a U.S. base near Qatar the next day, which would not cause casualties, with Iran and Israel then agreeing to a ceasefire on June 24.
North Korea, China and Russia have all quickly condemned the U.S. attack, which Russian President Vladimir Putin called “unreasonable aggression”, Chinese Foreign Ministry said it violated international laws and “intensified tensions in the Middle East” and that North Korea's foreign ministry maintained a comprehensive national interest on the ground and security. ”
Although the strike is a clear tactical success, the jury is still discussing whether they will gain broader strategic interests for Washington in the Middle East, or convince Iran that it is working harder than ever to develop nuclear deterrence, which could put the United States in a protracted conflict.
U.S. allies can see attacks as positive signals of deterrence
Euan Graham, senior defense analyst at the Australian Institute of Strategic Policy, said that if the attack remains a strike, U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region might see the decision as a positive signal from the Trump administration.
“If you see the U.S. strike against Iran will be seen as a net plus by Pacific allies, if it can enhance the red line, restore deterrence and last for a limited period of time, so as not to disengage the government from the clear priorities in the Indo-Pacific region,” he said. “China will note that Trump is ready to use force, at least opportunistic.”
Zhao Minghao, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, said in China, many people who think Trump has a “war-free mentality” will reassess the attacks that were designed to force Iran in negotiations on nuclear programs after the attack.
“The way the U.S. air attack on Iran is something China needs to pay attention to,” he said. “How Trump uses power to force negotiations is of great significance to the way China and the U.S. interact in the future.”
But, he said, Washington should not think it could adopt the same strategy through Beijing.
“If there is a conflict between China and the United States, it may be difficult for the United States to evacuate as soon as possible, let alone be unscathed,” he said.
China and North Korea face different challenges
In fact, the challenges facing China and North Korea are very different from those facing Iran.
First, both already possess nuclear weapons, and in the event of any attack, a possible stake in revenge is greatly increased.
There were no Asians equivalent to Israel, and on the opening day of the war, their ruthless attack on Iranian missile defenses were flying for B-2 bombers without firing at them and flying out without firing at them.
Still, the possibility of the U.S. involvement in a conflict involving China or North Korea is very real, and Beijing and Pyongyang will almost certainly try to assess what the infamous unpredictable Trump would do.
Joseph Dempsey, a defense expert at the Institute of International Strategic Studies, said Israel's North Korea could be “very shocked” and that Iran's achievements could be achieved.
Meanwhile, it may be considered internally as a reason for its own nuclear weapons program,
“If Iran does have nuclear weapons that can be deployed, would that happen?” Dempsey said. “Probably not.”
Hong Min, a senior analyst at South Korea's National Unification Institute, said that the decision of the U.S. to hold talks with Iran will not be noticed either.
“North Korea may conclude that if the dialogue is not careful, it can backfire by giving the United States an excuse to aggression,” he said.
“Doesn't induce the Trump administration, but is more likely to take a more passive stance to negotiate with Washington, but instead focus on strengthening its internal military construction and building closer ties with Russia, thereby narrowing the prospects for future negotiations,” he said.
China and Taiwan will draw courses
China will look at the attack through Taiwan's sun visor, which is an autonomous democratic island along the coast, which claims to be its own territory, and President Xi Jinping has not ruled out force yet.
The U.S. has provided weapons to Taiwan and is one of its most important allies, although the official policy of whether Washington will aid Taiwan in a conflict with China is called “strategic ambiguity”, which means not promising how to respond.
Singapore think tank RSIS RSIS RSIS RSIS RAJARATNAM School International of Firity, military, raised the question of whether the United States may show restrictions than China expected on mainland China.
He said Beijing “has difficult to predict Trump's actions”, which will also be emphasized.
“The U.S. air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities surprised many people,” Thompson said. “I think it shows that the Trump administration's tolerance and acceptance of risks may be surprising.”
It also attracted attention, said Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Programme for Defense Principles, a Washington-based foreign policy think tank, who added warnings about China’s threat in a recent speech.
Lai's words have prompted China to accuse him of pursuing Taiwan's independence, which is Beijing's red line. Goldstein said he was concerned that Taiwan might try to use Americans to “use force against Iran to increase its deterrence situation with the situation on the mainland.”
“President Lai's recent speech seems to be almost to create a new cross-border crisis, perhaps in the hope of building more support in Washington and elsewhere around the Pacific,” Goldstein said.
“I think it's a very risky gambit,” he said.
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Tong-Hyung Kim of Seoul, South Korea, and Didi Tang and Albee Zhang of Washington contributed to the report.
