Is the red card politics of Ivory Coast the goal of democracy?

Even a great international business career cannot prepare for politically difficult reality like the Goose Coast, where some people are questioning the democratic qualifications of West African countries, most notably producers of many cocoa and some of the best football players in the world.

It was the painful lesson Tidjane Thiam was waiting for, as he waited to see if the deals on the streets and the deals under the mass pressure could save him from becoming a president like Goose Coast.

The seemingly relentless progress paused sharply on April 22 in the elections held in October, when a judge ruled that the 62-year-old lost his Ivorian citizenship decades ago and did not revoke this year's vote until too late.

For two decades in global finance, Thiam moved back to the Ivory Coast in 2022 and was immediately seen as a potential contender to replace the current head of the country Alassane Ouattara.

The eldest nephew of a traditional aristocratic family and the country's respected founding president Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who was impressed by his position as a senior government official and minister in the 1990s, overseeing the development of infrastructure and radical economic reforms.

A military coup then prompted Thiam to seek a new career abroad, which ended up taking on a high-profile career as the prudent CEO of the British insurance giant and Banking Group Suisse.

But finally returning home three years ago, he is moving steadily towards the next presidential election of Ivoria.

The leader (PDCI) long-serving Democratic Party (PDCI) of the Ivory Coast Opposition Democratic Party (PDCI) enjoyed a perfect position after the death of former President Henri Konan Bédié in 2023, and was subsequently elected as a party candidate for the upcoming presidential election on April 17 this year.

This does not guarantee victory, especially if – Ouattara seems to have a reasonable choice for the fourth semester and is backed by all current assets and advantages, and has a record of four consecutive years of economic growth after more than 6%.

But Thiam stands out.

As an opponent of the Rally of Democratic and Peaceful Rulers (RHDP), he offers Averian voters an opportunity to change the government.

However, with his centrist politics and solid technical certificates, his candidacy reassuring and continues the impressive economic advancement that Ouattara has driven since 2011.

Now, the potential trajectory is blocked. Thiam will withdraw from October's match if the court's ruling position – Ivoria law has no choice of appeal on this particular issue.

It's a race, and past court convictions have ruled out three other prominent opposition figures – former President Laurent Gbagbo, former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro and former Minister Charlesblé Goudé – all central actors in the political crisis and civil conflict have brutally paralyzed the progress of Ivory Coast between 1999 and 2011.

The prospect now is that Ouattara, or any chosen RHDP successor candidate, will approach the election without facing any heavyweight political challenges.

This can only deepen the general disillusionment of the Ivorians with the country's political institutions.

It is a broader context targeting West Africa, where radical anti-political rhetoric by soldiers who seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has found a sympathetic audience among many fascinating young people.

This is indeed very important in society, where usually three-quarters of the population are less than 35 years old.

There are some moments of encouragement in this crisis of democracy in West Africa.

In Liberia in 2023 and Senegal and Ghana last year, the current government was elected as free and fair elections, and the result was accepted by all contestants without debate.

Senegal's results are especially attributed to the enthusiastic mobilization of young people.

Many hope that the Ivory Coast will provide a further positive example of democratic choice and change, and one example may be more influential because the country is a prosperous regional power.

It is the economic engine of the CFA franc single currency group, and in addition to the cocoa industry, it is also a key hub for business services and finance, and it is also a leading political voice for the economic community of regional groups (ECOWAS).

What happens on like the Coast of Geese is really important and is widely noticed throughout West Africa and even throughout French-speaking Africa.

Ouattara is one of the most outstanding politicians on the mainland and has also attracted widespread respect internationally.

However, the rise of the country's crucial next presidential election is now trapped in a return version of identity politics that has caused fierce disputes and instability in the 1990s and 2000s.

At that time, the governments of First Bedi and Gerbabo used the controversial “ivoirité”, meaning “ivorian-ness” law, which shut Ouatar out and served as president on the grounds that his family allegedly had foreign origins.

It wasn't until 2007 that the government lifted the ban on his candidacy, and until 2016, he was in office – and eventually, a new constitution ended the requirement that the presidential candidate's parents were native-born Iverians.

The toxic mobilization of identity issues was a major factor in the civil war, street violence and the separatist zoning in the northern part, until 2011, Yoda had been cruelly scarred Ivory Coast for more than a decade, killing thousands of lives.

Today, the country is far away from such a large-scale conflict.

Without interest in confrontation, politicians stay away from the inflammatory rhetoric of the past.

But Thiam Saga demonstrates the issue of identity, which, even in a more legitimate form, may still be serious in this era of hope for a more peaceful life.

Dual nationality is only permitted along the Ivory Coast under certain limited conditions.

Therefore, in the April 22 ruling, the Abidjan court announced that under the provisions of a small number of post-independence law, Thiam automatically lost his Ivorian citizenship when he gained French nationality – a study conducted in Paris for several years.

Although he officially surrendered in February this year, he has automatically restored his original citizenship, it is too late for this year's registration of qualified voters or candidates.

His lawyers futilely argued that through his father, Thiam, had French nationality from birth – if accepted, would exempt him from a dual nationality ban.

To underscore the absurdity and contradiction of the situation, he believes that logically the country should now back down its precious 2024 African Cup of Nations football champion, as many players also have French nationality.

“If we apply the law in a way [that] They just applied it to me and we had to return the cup to Nigeria – because half of the team wasn't Ivorian. ” he told the BBC.

Another setback could be encountered Thursday at a scheduled court hearing, and the judge can now rule that Thiam cannot lead the PDCI as a non-state.

Over the past two weeks, with the ongoing political and legal debates over the entire legend, Thiam Camp hopes that the combination of mass pressure and cautious political negotiations will lead to compromises that will bring him back to the presidential campaign with other excluded contenders.

Ouattara, if she chooses not to run, might want to maintain his impressive record and by stepping into some kind of deal, enable Thiam to run and secure his international reputation.

With the months of polling, there is still time. But no one expects it.

Paul Melly is a consulting researcher at Chatham House, London's Africa Program.

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