New research shows that Israel's carbon footprint in the first 15 months of the war on Gaza will be greater than the annual planetary warm emissions of a hundred countries, exacerbating the global climate emergency, but exceeding the global climate emergency due to huge civilian deaths.
A study shared specifically with guardians found that the long-term climate cost of destroying, cleaning and rebuilding Gaza may exceed 31 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent content (TCO2E). That's more than the 2023 annual greenhouse gases combined, which are emitted by Costa Rica and Estonia, but states are not obliged to report military emissions to the UN climate agency.
Israel's ruthless bombing, blockade and refusal to comply with the International Court of Justice ruling highlights the asymmetry of the war machine between the two sides, and the almost unconditional military, energy and diplomatic support for Israel's enjoyment of allies, including the United States and Britain.
The study found that Hamas fuel and rockets had a capacity of about 3,000 tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 0.2% of the total direct conflict emissions, while 50% was generated by the supply and use of weapons, tanks and other ordnance from the Israeli Military (IDF).
Burning fossil fuels are causing climate chaos, and increasingly deadly and destructive extreme weather events force record-breaking people to move. The Gulf region is most vulnerable to extreme weather and slow climate disasters, including drought, desertification, extreme high temperatures and unstable rainfall, as well as environmental degradation, food insecurity and water shortages.
The research published by the Social Science Research Network is part of a growing movement that holds states and businesses responsible for the climate and environmental costs of war and occupations, including damage to land, food and water sources, as well as post-conflict cleanup and reconstruction.
This is the third and most comprehensive analysis by British and American researchers, conducting climate costs in the first 15 months of the conflict, which killed more than 53,000 Palestinians in addition to extensive infrastructure damage and environmental disasters. It also offers the first (although partly) carbon cost, which is the cost of other recent conflicts in Israel.
Overall, researchers estimate that the long-term climate cost of Israel’s military destruction in Gaza and its recent military exchanges with Yemen, Iran and Lebanon is equivalent to charging 2.6 billion smartphones or running 84 natural gas power plants for a year. The figure includes an estimated 557,359 TCO2Es, which are caused by the Hamas Tunnel Network and the “iron wall” barrier in Israel.
The killings and environmental damage in Gaza were restored after Israel unilaterally violated the ceasefire, but these findings may ultimately help calculate the claim of compensation.
“This updated study demonstrates the urgency of stopping escalating atrocities and ensures that Israel and all states comply with international law, including decisions of the International Criminal Court and the International Criminal Court,” a special report on the United Nations’ right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment for human beings. “Whether the state agrees to call it genocide or not, the face of all life in Gaza that we face is seriously affecting, and threatens human rights in the region, even globally, due to the intensification of climate change.”
This study is currently found in a peer review in the journal Earth Issue:
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Of the estimated nearly 1.89 million TCO2Es generated between the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 and the temporary ceasefire in January 2025, more than 99% were attributed to Israeli air bombing and ground invasions on Gaza.
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Almost 30% of the greenhouse gases produced during that period came from the United States, sending 50,000 tons of weapons and other military supplies to Israel, mainly freight and ships in stock in Europe. Another 20% are attributed to Israeli aircraft reconnaissance and bombing missions, tanks and fuel, as well as carbon dioxide produced by making and exploding bombs and artillery.
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Solar energy generates up to a quarter of Gaza's electricity, representing one of the world's highest stakes, but most panels and the only power plants in the territory have been damaged or destroyed. Gaza now has limited power opportunities and is primarily dependent on diesel engine generators that emit more than 130,000 tons of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, accounting for 7% of the total conflict emissions.
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An estimated 70,000 aid trucks Israel has allowed access to the Gaza Strip to produce more than 40% of the total emissions, a figure that the United Nations seriously condemns not enough to meet the basic humanitarian needs of the 2.2 million displaced and hungry Palestinians.
However, the most important climate cost will come from the reconstruction of Gaza, with Israel estimated to drop to 60 million tons of toxic rubble.
Carbon costs for transporting debris, then rebuilding 436,000 apartments, 700 schools, mosques, clinics, government offices and other buildings, and 5 kilometers of Gaza roads, an estimated 29.4 million tons of Eco2. This is comparable to the emissions generated by Afghanistan in the entire 2023.
The reconstruction figures are lower than previous estimates from the same study group as the average size of the apartment blocks were revised.
“This report is a surprising reminder of the ecological and environmental costs of Israel's genocide movement on Earth and its surrounded people,” said Zena Agha, policy analyst at the Palestinian Policy Network al-Shabaka.
“But it’s also a war between the United States, Britain and the European Union, all of which provide seemingly unlimited military resources that allow Israel to destroy densely populated places on the planet. [regional] The influence of Israel’s settler state and its inseparability from the Western military industrial complex. ”
The war in Gaza also caused bloody regional tensions. Research found:
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Yemen's Husseus launched an estimated 400 rockets to Israel between October 2023 and January 2025, producing about 55 TCO2Es. Israel's aerial response produces nearly 50 times the planet's warm greenhouse gases. A previous study found that transport emissions were estimated to increase by 63% after Houthis blocked the Red Sea Corridor, forcing cargo ships to take longer routes.
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The conservative estimates for two large-scale exchange missile exchanges between Israel and Iran are over 5,000 TCO2Es, while more than 80% of Israel have dropped to Israel.
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In Lebanon, more than 90% of the estimated 3,747 TCO2Es generated by sporadic exchanges are from IDF bombs, and only 8% are related to Hezbollah rockets. The carbon cost of rebuilding 3,600 homes in southern Lebanon is almost as high as the annual emissions on St. Lucia.
The study is based on an evolving approach known as the Scope 3+ framework, which aims to capture the current lack of direct and indirect wartime emissions in the current global climate and conflict audit. This could include soil degradation, fires, infrastructure damage, population displacement, aid, rerouting of cargo ships and civil aviation.
Researchers rely on open source information, media reports and data from independent aid organizations such as UN agencies. Given Israel’s media blockade, it is almost certain that the real environment will certainly be more expensive and has data on desolate farmland, desertification, remediation and fires, and other carbon-inspired data, so difficult to obtain.
“This conflict in Gaza shows that these numbers are enormous, larger than the entire greenhouse gas emissions of many entire countries and must be included in order to conduct accurate climate change and mitigation goals,” said Frederick Otu-Larbi, senior teaching assistant at the Lannaster Center for Environmental Environment and lecture on Ghana Energy and Natural Resources.
“The military needs to take into account its national security and operational capabilities into account because of the climate change it creates itself,” said Ben Neimark, senior lecturer and study co-author of Queens University in London.
Previous research found that military emissions rose as expenditure and accumulation.
The Stockholm International Peace Institute said Israel's military budget soared to $46.5 billion in 2024, the largest growth in the world. According to one approach, Israel's benchmark military emissions (excluding direct conflict and climate reconstruction costs) rose to 6.5 million TCO2E last year. This is more than Eritrea's entire carbon footprint, a country with 3.5 million people.
However, under current UN regulations, reporting military emission data is voluntary and limited to fuel use, despite the fact that the global climate cost of destruction of Gaza. Like most military forces around the world, the IDF has never reported emissions figures to the United Nations.
“War not only kills people, but also releases toxic chemicals, destroys toxic chemicals, damages infrastructure, pollutes soil, air and water resources, and accelerates climate and environmental disasters,” said Hadeel Ikhmais, head of the Office of Climate Change at the Palestinian Environmental Quality Agency. Crime.”
