I have written before about my frustration that many demographic reports focus on the 65+ population as a whole, rather than dividing this group into 65-84 and 85+ groups. There are two main reasons for this difference: different rates of care need between the two groups and opposing demographic trends.
(many people) become disabled starting at age 85
The younger generation, although experiencing some aches and pains associated with aging, are generally able to take care of themselves. After age 85, the likelihood of needing assistance due to cognitive or physical disabilities really skyrockets.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Administration for Community Living, a program recently eliminated in a Trump administration reorganization, reports that people over 85 require nursing home care at a much higher rate than people ages 65-84. Likewise, the Centers for Disease Control estimates that about 20% of older adults need help with activities of daily living, compared with only about 5% of younger adults.
Opposite demographic trends
Demographic trends for the two groups are also very different. The current population of the 65-84 age group is growing dramatically as large numbers of baby boomers turn 65 every day. For the youngest baby boomers, who were born in 1964 and will turn 65 in 2029, this pattern will continue for a few more years.
Around the same time, growth in the over-85 population will accelerate as the oldest of the baby boomers, born in 1946, approach their 80s.
Elder care shortage in Southern California
More and more people are beginning to take notice of this demographic reality. written in orange county registerAndre Mouchard observes “[o]Over the next decade, the number of people 85 and older living in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties will increase by more than 72 percent. “Other outlets of all shapes and sizes are also picking up on the story, Oswego County Business arrive market observation arrive new york times.
orange county register Muchard noted that given the high cost of elder care, many “super seniors” do not have enough income or private insurance to cover most or any long-term care costs. This could lead to more seniors becoming homeless, putting more pressure on family members who must provide or pay for their own care, and making it “harder for them to save for their own retirement.”
As Medicaid cuts the “big beauty bill,” there may be less money to pay for care, especially home care. Mouchard told us about a 58-year-old local resident who was paid by Medi-Cal (California's Medicaid program) to care for her 90-year-old mother-in-law.
Many critics worry that such programs will be cut as states respond to a $1 trillion reduction in federal Medicaid funding over 10 years. As Howard Gleckman of the Brookings Urban Tax Policy Center explained to me, while Medicaid coverage of nursing home care is mandatory, coverage of home care is voluntary and could be on the chopping block as states seek to cut costs.
“Super” senior?
The entire nation will begin to face the coming senior citizen crisis in a few years, not just Southern California. Perhaps Muchard's use of the term “super” seniors to distinguish those over 85 from younger seniors is just what is needed to convince more policymakers to pay attention to the coming demographic storm.
For more information about Harry Margolis, check out his Adventures in Aging in America blog and podcast. He also answers consumer estate planning questions on AskHarry.info. To stay up to date on the Squared Away blog, join our free email list.
