Predicting the next 5 years? UN Weather Agency says record records are popular
There is a high possibility that a new calorie record will be created over the next five years. The average temperature over the next five years is also likely to exceed the lower limit of the Paris climate change agreement, the United Nations Weather Service forecast. Warming in the Arctic is greater than the global average rate.
All of this will exacerbate extreme weather, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Wednesday.
“A certain level of warming, each part drives more harmful heat waves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers, heating of the oceans, and rising sea levels,” it said in a statement.
The WMO said in a new report that from this year to the end of 2029, the average global ground temperature will be 1.2 c to 1.9 c higher than the pre-industrial level in 1850-1900.
Scientists warn that this year may be 1.5 c higher than the pre-industrial era, surpassing last year's 1.48 c record. Now, some experts are concerned that Donald Trump’s less friendly stance on climate change could make the crisis worse.
Over the next five years, at least 80% chances will see record heat, while the average probability of warming is 70% more than the previous industrial level of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Last year, WMO was the hottest year, reporting the first breach of the 2015 Paris Lower Climate Agreement target, which aims to “work” to limit global warming to 1.5 C, while “raising the rise in global average temperatures to 2C well below pre-industrial levels.” However, these targets are based on average temperatures over the past 20 years. This means that the measured and predicted temperature has not yet formally violated the lower limit of the Paris Agreement.
What can be expected of the Arctic and Amazon
In the Arctic, projected warming will accelerate the melting of ice in the Arctic and Northwest Pacific.
The WMO report said Arctic warming is expected to be more than three and a half times the global average, with average temperatures 2.4 c higher than the average over the next five winters during the latest 30-year baseline period.
This is possible, according to a new study published this week in the journal Nature Communications. They say an ice-free summer is the worst case scenario by 2027 – but if we can limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, things will still change.
The report said that overall global temperature will remain at record levels or close to record levels until the end of the decade.
According to the Weather Agency, above-average rainfall around the world, including the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, between months between 2025 and September 2029, while the season's rainfall is between months between 2025 and 2029.
