How is Trump's “Golden Dome” possible? Should Canada be part of it? – National
Policy experts say Canada's national security will benefit from the “Golden Dome” missile defense program by U.S. President Donald Trump.
However, it can take years (if not decades) to fully implement it.
“Of course, you want a coalition system that is working together,” said Rob Huebert, professor of political science at the University of Calgary and interim director of the Center for Military Security and Strategic Studies.
“Next to us is the greatest power in the world, and that’s just part of reality.”
The Prime Minister's Office confirmed on Tuesday that the federal government held talks with the United States on a new economic and security partnership, “naturally includes strengthening NORAD and its related initiatives, such as Golden Dome.”
“We realized that if we choose, we have the ability to complete the Golden Dome through investments and partnerships, which is what we are looking for and discussed at a high level,” Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters on Wednesday.
Trump said in a system that announced his concept estimated at $175 billion, “Canada called us and they wanted to be part of it,” adding that the country would have to “pay a fair share.”
Carney won't say how much money Canada has willing to spend on the project on Wednesday, and he has called for an option to strengthen defense in many of his administrations.
How will the golden dome work?
Despite tight trade and defense spending under the Trump administration, experts say Canada is naturally going to play a role in the new continental missile defense system given the evolving threat environment, especially in the Arctic.
Imagine the golden dome includes ground-based capabilities, including hundreds of satellites, which may be.
These will be able to detect and stop missiles in all four main stages of a potential attack: detect and destroy them before launch, intercept them at the earliest stages of flight, stop them in the middle of the air, or stop them in the last few minutes as they descend towards the target.
Components deployed by space alone can make the system more advanced than the Iron Dome, which is collectively used in Israel's multi-layer missile defense system and developed with the support of the United States.
The Iron Dome system itself specializes in shooting down short-range rockets. It works with two other systems: the arrows run outside the atmosphere and intercept long-range missiles, while David's slings intercept mid-range missiles.
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Israel says its missile defense system is more than 90%.
When Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles last year, the Israeli military said 99% of these projectiles were intercepted.
Richard Shimooka, a senior researcher at the MacDonald-Laurier Institute, said that given that the Golden Dome system will require an effective zero-to-zero failure rate, the responsibility for the cutoff is intercepted.
“This is orders of magnitude greater than what the Iron Dome seeks to achieve,” he told Global News.
“Israel is a small, continuous country – most missiles hitting Israel can travel less than 100 kilometers.”
Shimooka continued: “(For the Golden Dome), we're talking about missiles, which have to hit at least 4,000 kilometers, using suborbital trajectories…they may be nuclear missiles, so if you miss one, you can't say 'OOPS' because that means a city's level.”
The idea based on space defense systems can be traced back to former U.S. President Ronald Reagan's brief “Star Wars” project, which was abandoned in the 1980s due to lack of technology.
When will it operate?
Trump said Tuesday he expects the system to run “fully before the end of my term” and will end in 2029.
“If you'll see this at the end of your next presidency, I'd be surprised that not only are the budget restrictions and cuts pushed by Republicans in Congress, but also the complexity of the proposed system,” Shimooka said.
Shimooka and others say it is more likely that the initial phase of the program, probably the earliest stages of operations, until the entire system is first launched in the next decade.
How can Canada benefit?
Canada and the United States have worked together through the North American Aerospace Defense Command or NORAD, which order can detect and shoot down some missile threats, such as the Cruise missile.
However, Canada is not part of the U.S. ballistic missile defense system under U.S. Northern Command, which currently has the only authority to shoot down these missiles.
“We're not having some discussions in the room that are crucial to North American defense,” Shimooka said.
Former Prime Minister Paul Martin announced in 2005 that Canada would not join the U.S. system, which was primarily intended to oppose North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program.
In the decades since then, experts say the threat environment has developed to the point where deterrence must be achieved through defence.
“The Russians and Chinese are at our doorstep,” the retired major said. Scott Clancy, former director of operations for Norad.
“They use bombers to approach our airspace, submarines to approach our waters, away from our shorelines, and can attack us at any given time without warning.”
The Pentagon has warned for years that the latest missiles developed by China and Russia are so advanced that updated countermeasures are needed.
In 2023, experts told the House of Commons and Senate Defense Committee that Canada should consider multi-layered air and missile defense systems that can intercept a growing number of threats from drones and undersea missiles to weapons of space exploitation, ultrasonic missiles and intercontinental zip codes.
“If you can object to these things, it will first reduce the reality of the strike by blocking it,” Clancy said.
Contrary to the objection that Canada said in 2005, he added: “You have to achieve real defensive capabilities to achieve deterrence.”
What contribution can Canada make?
In March, Carney announced that he had purchased $6 billion in radar from Australia and expanded Arctic military operations.
The expected radar system is expected to provide early warning radar coverage at the U.S. national borders in Canada, part of the government's previously announced $40 billion Norard modernization plan.
Last year’s defense policy update focused on investing in integrated air and missile defense.
Experts say these features will almost certainly lead to the golden dome system.
Trump says he hopes to build all new space deployment systems in the United States
Given the cost and complexity involved, Canada may not want to contribute to the work, but can play a role in its operations, Shimooka said.
Canada's investment in the Golden Dome could help Canada eventually reach NATO's target of at least GDP spending to the Ministry of Defense, with Carney aiming to 2030.
“Strategically, it makes sense, it makes sense economically, and for us, it's a safe and stable ally in the Western world,” Clancy said.
– Documents with Global Touria Izri and the Associated Press
