KELVILLE, Texas (AP) – Christopher Flowers checked the weather at a friend's home on the Guadalupe River before going to bed before the July 4 holiday. There was no alarming person in the prediction.
A few hours later, he was anxious to safety: he woke up in the dark, popping out electrical outlets and ankle-deep water. Soon, his family scrambled nine people into the attic. Flowers recalled Saturday, and the phones buzzed, but he couldn't remember when they started.
“What they need is some kind of external system, such as a tornado warning, telling people to leave now,” Fros, 44, said.
The destructive and rapidly developing waters that began before the sunrise in Mount Texas nation killed at least 43 people in Kerr County on Friday, authorities said Saturday. Those who still have no blame include 27 girls from Mystic Camp Camp, a Christian summer camp in a river in Kerr County where most of the dead were recovered.
But as authorities launched one of the largest search and rescue efforts in recent Texas history, their review of preparation and why residents and youth camps dotted along the river were soon not alerted early or informed of evacuation.
The National Weather Service issued a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday, before issuing a flash flood emergency – a rare alarm to inform the imminent danger.
Local officials insist that no one sees the potential of flooding coming and defends their actions.
“There will be a lot of indexes, second guesses and quarterback Monday morning,” said U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, Republican. “There are a lot of people saying 'why' and 'how', and I understand that.”
When the warning starts
The initial flood surveillance (usually urging residents to be weather-aware) was issued by the local National Meteorological Services Office on Thursday at 1:18 p.m.
It predicts rainfall from 5 to 7 inches (12.7 to 17.8 cm). Jason Runyen, a meteorologist at the National Meteorological Services Office, said the office’s weather messaging, including automatic alerts delivered to cell phones to people in threatened areas, became increasingly ominous in the early morning of Friday, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flooded areas.
At 4:03 a.m., the office issued an emergency warning, increasing the potential for catastrophic damage and a serious threat to human life.
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at Accuweather, a private weather forecasting company that uses national weather service data, said evacuation and other aggressive measures have appeared to be taken to reduce the risk of death.
“People, businesses and governments should act on flash flood warnings issued regardless of the amount of rainfall that occurs or is predicted,” Porter said in a statement.
Local officials said they did not expect such a strong downpour, equivalent to months of rainfall in the area.
“We know we're raining. We know the river is rising,” said Rob Kelly, a senior elected official in the county. “But no one saw this.”
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he jogged along the river early in the morning, and found no problems at 4 a.m. more than an hour later, and at 5:20 a.m., the water level rose sharply, “We could hardly get out of the park,” he said.
Rice also noted that the public may be desensitized to too many weather warnings.
Kelly said the county considered a flood warning system along the river that could have been like a tornado warning, about six to seven years ago, before he was elected, but the idea never got off the ground due to the cost.
“We've looked at it before… the public has paid the price,” Kelly said.
Hundreds of rescues
Texas Governor Greg Abbott said Saturday that the huge response to the flood led to rescue and recovery of more than 850 people, including some findings of attachment to trees.
The helicopter airlifted dozens of people to safety in a girl including Mystic camp.
Kelly said he had no idea what kind of safety and evacuation plans the camp might have had.
“What I know is that the flood first hit the camp, it was late at night. I don't know where the kids are,” he said. “I don't know what kind of alert system they have. This will come in time.”
U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Saturday that forecasters have difficulty predicting rain. She said the Trump administration will prioritize upgrading national meteorological service technology for warnings.
“We know everyone wants more warning time, which is why we are working to upgrade technology that has been overlooked for too long to ensure families have as many advance notices as possible,” Norm said in a news conference with state and federal leaders.
Meteorological service has additional staff
Runyen said the National Weather Services office in the new Braunfels provides forecasts for Austin, San Antonio and the surrounding area with additional duty staff in the storm.
In clear weather, the office usually has two on-duty forecasters, who have up to five employees.
“That night there were more people here, and it's a typical figure in every weather service office – your staff attending events and bringing people in overtime and getting people over,” Runyen said.
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Murphy covered Oklahoma City.
