Israel's provocative reconciliation response could force Canada to support its words
The Israeli ambassador Jon Allen, a former Canadian senior fellow at the University of Toronto Muke School, said the Israeli government’s response to the unprecedented joint statements in Canada, France and the United Kingdom last week was almost insignificant.
“It's basically telling the world that we don't really care what you think,” he told CBC News. “They do put their noses on the international community.”
The expansion of settlements has been accelerating since the incumbent government arrived in Netanyahu's sixth place, but Allen said the announcement of 22 new settlements, whether through new buildings or through the formalization of existing settler posts built outside the law – is a major upgrade in multiple ways.
“First, it's a big number. Second, even in Israel, it's considered illegal settlements in the Supreme Court,” he said.
“But more importantly, you are getting statements from the minister that are basically saying to prevent a two-state solution, and at the same time you have an activity in Gaza and it looks like Israel may also try to occupy much of the Gaza Strip.”
He said this dramatic action was driven by a feeling within Israel, a moment that is now or never.
“These ministers realize that their votes are very bad and this is their last chance to try to change things locally in Israel,” he said.
“So they are really working to kill the last effort of a solution from both countries.”
From prison cell to cabinet table
Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fully recognized the settlement plan, many Israelis believe that the most powerful driving force comes from the country's finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who also holds key positions that put him in control of the West Bank.
Smotrich's role illustrates how much Israel's mainstream politics has changed over the past two decades.
In 2005, Smotrich was one of four radical settlers arrested by Israel's Shin Bet security department for allegedly planning violent attacks to prevent the evacuation of Israel's settlements in Gaza and northern banks. He appeared in the security court in handcuffs and prison jumpsuits.
Today, he is the two figures in the government and can formally reestablish a settlement that once evacuated, and he had so completely opposed it.
Smotrich boasted on May 19: “We are dismantling Gaza [that has] There is no precedent in the world. And the world has not stopped us. ”
He said his own preference is to cut off water and food, but that could lead to intervention in other countries. He publicly stated that the goal was to keep Palestinians in Gaza.
On May 25, he returned to the same topic.
“Thank God, we are lucky to see the expansion of Israel’s land borders in all respects,” he said. “We are lucky to have the opportunity to erase the seeds of Amalek, and this process is intensifying.”
If Canada fails to take action, it will “lose credibility”
“We oppose any attempt to expand settlements in the West Bank,” Keir Starmer of the UK and Emmanuel Macron of France wrote in a joint statement last week.
“Israel must stop settlements, which is illegal and undermines the viability of the Palestinian state and the security of Israelis and Palestinians. We will not hesitate to take further action, including targeted sanctions.”
Thomas Juneau, a former Canadian defense official who now teaches the Middle East about the Middle East at the University of Ottawa Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, told CBC News that the Israeli announcement left Canada with no choice but to support its speech.
The World Health Organization warns that the risk of famine and mass hunger in Gaza is rising. Palestinian health officials said dozens of children have died of malnutrition since March and Israel has blocked all aid shipments.
“This does put pressure on the Canadian government, but it also put pressure on France, Britain, Germany and other European governments to take a clear position on threatening actions against Israel last week,” Juno said.
“So if Canadian and European players now have nothing to do with the 22 new settlements in the West Bank, then they will lose their credibility later.”
Former ambassador Allen said Canada cannot create markers like the joint statement signed last week and then let such a provocative response pass without action.
“I'm frankly speaking, I think they'll ignore that. I think these three governments are serious about what they say and I hope the sanctions will follow,” he told CBC News.
Sanctions should be against the Minister: Former Ambassador
Canada has approved a handful of extremist settlers, although this is barely action taken by European allies.
But Western sanctions have little practical effect on individual settlers, who sometimes see them as badges of honor.
Despite repeated condemnation by the Western government, the most extreme ministers in Netanyahu's cabinet have so far avoided sanctions. Britain's David Cameron told the BBC last year that he had been preparing for Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir before the government election failed. Ben Gvir is a rampant extremist who was once the target of bet surveillance but is now Israel's national security minister.
Allen said that simply repeating invalid sanctions on individual settlers would make no sense when settlement policies are clearly driven from the top.
“I think [the joint statement] It is the strongest and most comprehensive announcement I have ever seen in the Canadian government. But if they did not follow up and issued a specific threat about settlements, then I think it would be a paper statement. ”
Allen identified Smotrich, Ben GVIR and Defense Minister Israel Katz as the three cabinet members of the most radical policies of driving.
He told CBC News: “If I suggest them, I suggest they approve the ministers in question, these three people.” He said: “But we have to recognize that Prime Minister Netanyahu is the Prime Minister and he is allowing all this to happen.”
Netanyahu counts on Trump
Juno said sometimes Netanyahu tends to rely on Israel’s relationship with Washington. The Trump administration, the only major government in the world, does not always regard Israel’s West Bank settlement as the essentially illegality of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which prohibits parties victorious in war from transferring their population to conquered territory or forcing civilian populations living there to leave.
“Although the growth of the stimulus trends of European powers and Canada for Israel, it can only be important in the calculus of the Israeli government at best,” Juno said.
Juno said U.S. President Donald Trump recommended the expulsion of Gaza's population to turn the territory into an international tourist and he is unlikely to react strongly to the settlement announcement. “But there are many signs that the Trump administration is a little annoyed by Israel.”
Signs include the fact that both Trump and Vice President JD Vance visited the Middle East in Israel, and Trump clearly ignored Israel's desires and oppositions and oppositions, and ignored Trump with Husseus and ongoing rumors in Iran and Yemen that Trump had secretly negotiated secretly with the Saudia Arabia Arabia Input, which does not contain Israel, with Saudia Arabia note Israeli input.
“All of these summaries cause anxiety in Israel,” Juno said.
Canada may coordinate with allies
Canada may want to coordinate its response with the British and French governments, which jointly signed last week's joint statement, two experts said.
“The place where Canada may have limited but real impact is that it has with allies, especially in Europe, and so are others: Australia, Japan, South Korea and a few others,” Juno said.
“If there is a coordinated campaign that is not only a stick for Israel, but also support for Palestinian authorities and Israeli peace camps, then there is an impact.”
This week, European countries that did not sign joint statements separately warned Israel that their patience was over.
The Italian Foreign Minister said Israel's war in Gaza took “absolutely dramatic and unacceptable form” and “must stop immediately.” German conservative Prime Minister Friedrich Merz, a longtime unconditional supporter of Israel, said: “What the Israeli army does in the Gaza Strip, I no longer understand the goal of harming the civilian population in this way.”
If Israel does not change direction, Germany threatens “consequences” for the first time, Foreign Secretary Johann Wadephul said the days of “compulsory solidarity” with Israel are over.
Juneau said Canada has no choice but to respect the two-state formula and international law.
“If peace remains the goal, if security remains the goal, then there is no choice but to coexist with the Palestinian side and Israeli side,” he said.
“I think everyone involved in the European side on the Canadian government is very aware of how far the peace is. But it's still the only acceptable option.”
