00:00 Speaker a
Smart minds try to avoid getting angry because they have been getting output from UH, tariffs, UH, Trump and Trump and Tarriff, new tariff ideas. Well, until now, the main line prediction has been that no, Trump’s tariffs will not cause a recession on their own. Are you thinking again?
00:25 Speaker b
It's really hard because on A, you know that this might make our growth go, uh, speed, and maybe worse than that. So, yes, maybe not necessarily a complete recession, but, you know, approaching stall speeds where you are more vulnerable. Again, I'm back to what the tax bill looks like? Does this offset some of them? Do we still have room here to negotiate with other countries that can reduce these? So, you know, it's hard to model. If you somehow take the top five trading partners and say, OK, we can lower these rates, you know, cut them in half, that's a completely different ball game. And this situation may change at any time. So, well, you know, I wouldn't say it's a total recession. I'm going to say that this will undoubtedly increase the risk of recession. Well, and you know, if you do math, you might bring growth, you know, 1% or below, close to stall speed.
