Trump's trade war, tensions in the Middle East surpass the BRICS summit – National
Brazil hosted the BRICS Group, which hosted Sunday and Monday, during which urgent topics such as Israeli attacks on Iran, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and trade tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump are expected to be handled with caution.
Analysts and diplomats said the doubled size last year could affect its ability to become the other pole of world affairs. They also viewed the moderate agenda of the summit as an attempt by member states to avoid Trump's radar.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lulada Silva has some of his priorities, such as the debate on artificial intelligence and climate change, the frontier and center of talks with key leaders who do not participate.
“We have witnessed the unprepared collapse of multilateralism” and the conference is being held “in the most unfavorable global situation held in Brazil four times.” He called on the organization to promote peace and mediate conflict.
“If international governance does not reflect the new multipolar reality of the 21st century, it depends on the renovation of the BRICS countries,” Lula said at the opening ceremony of the summit.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has not attended the BRICS summit for the first time since he became his country's leader in 2012. Russian President Vladimir Putin will appear via video conference, continuing to avoid traveling abroad mostly due to international arrest warrants issued after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Egypt's Abdel-Fattah El-Sissi also did not attend the party in Rio de Janeiro.
Three joint statements expected
The expected restrictions in Rio de Janeiro mark a deviation from a Russian summit in Kazan, when the Kremlin tried to provide an alternative to the US-led payment system that would allow Russia to evade the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine after its full-scale invasion in Russia in February 2022.
Sources involved in the negotiations told reporters on Friday that some members of the group hope to be more aggressive in the situation of the attacks on Iran by Gaza and Israel. Sources spoke on anonymous condition because they had no right to speak publicly about the matter.
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“Brazil wants to keep the summit as technical as possible,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation think tank and university.
Therefore, observers expect a final statement about Russia's war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.
Stuenkel said that in addition to the right Brazil for Brazil, the absence of Putin and XI may be more prone to watering and non-controversial. These two countries have pushed for a stronger anti-Western stance than Brazil and India do not like non-aligned countries.
A Brazilian government official told the Associated Press on Thursday that the group is expected to issue three joint statements and final statements, “all of which are restricted by the current geopolitical tensions.” The official spoke on anonymously because they do not have the right to speak publicly about the preparations for the summit.
João Alfredo Nyegray, professor of international business and geopolitics at Pope Parana Catholic University, said the summit may have played a role in showing alternatives to an unstable world, but would not do so.
“Uncertainty in the level of representation in Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are confirming that it is difficult for the BRICS countries to establish themselves as cohesion for global leadership,” Nyegray said. “This moment requires a high level of pronunciation, but we are actually seeing dispersion.”
Brazil, the country chaired by the group, has selected six strategic priorities for the summit: global health care cooperation; trade, investment and finance; climate change; artificial intelligence governance; peace and security establishment; and institutional development.
Ana Garcia, a professor at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro, said it has decided to focus on smaller issues, such as promoting trade relations between members and global health, such as promoting trade relations between members and global health.
“Brazil hopes to cause minimal damage and avoid attracting the attention of the Trump administration to prevent any risks to the Brazilian economy,” Garcia said.
Brazil advocated reforms to the Western-led global institutions on Sunday, a cornerstone policy for the organization, but the government hopes to avoid being the target of tariffs – a dilemma so far has largely escaped.
Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on the group if they take any measures to undermine the dollar.
“Best Opportunity for Emerging Countries”
The BRICS countries were founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but last year the organization expanded to include Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.
In addition to the new members, the group also has 10 strategic partner countries, a category created at the summit last year, including Belarus, Cuba and Vietnam.
This rapid expansion has allowed Brazil to propose better integration of domestic affairs issues (formally known as institutional development) on the agenda and to enhance internal cohesion.
Bruce Scheidl, a researcher at the Bruce University’s Bruce Research Group at St. Paul’s University, said that despite the absence is noteworthy, the summit is important to attendees, especially in the face of instability caused by Trump’s tariff war.
“The summit provides the best opportunity for emerging countries to find alternatives and diversify their economic partnerships,” Scheidl said.
For Lula, the summit was a welcome pause in a tough domestic scene, marking a decline in popularity and conflict with Congress.
The meeting also represents an opportunity to negotiate and commit climate to protecting the environment ahead of the November COP 30 climate negotiations held in the Amazon city of Belem in November.
