Starting Sunday, Canada will host leaders of the annual G7 summit in the world's largest economy, with the bet unlikely to be higher.
Several trade wars by U.S. President Donald Trump have scrambled to lower tariffs. The ceasefire failed to stick to in Gaza and Ukraine. Allies collectively focus on promoting their defensive capabilities to resist China, Russia and other threat actors. The rise of artificial intelligence has opened up opportunities and risks in many ways.
For Prime Minister Mark Carney, this will mark his most compelling stage as he tries to normalize relations with Trump and redefine Canada as a key ally.
This is expected during the summit.
Avoid past discords and trade with us
The last time Canada hosted a summit of G7 leaders was in 2018, and tensions would soon be seen erupting.
Trump clashed with then-General Secretary Justin Trudeau and other leaders on trade, resulting in the U.S. disapproval of the official G7 communiqué, which the French Foreign Secretary called the summit “G6 plus one person.”
Allen Sens, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, said in an email that a repeat of Canada and the Alliance will be a “nightmare” for Canada and the Alliance.
Since returning to office this year, Trump's actions to exacerbate discord at an earlier summit have doubled: imposing massive tariffs on allies, reversing or reducing climate change actions and reopening dialogue with Russia.
However, the scale of Trump's trade war means leaders may speak out about their own deals on tariffs and other issues on the official G7 communiqué, including Canada.
The summit will mark the first time Carney and Trump have face-to-face with each other since the White House meeting in May.
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said Wednesday that the two leaders saw the gathering as a “turning point” for them to negotiate directly against a potential new deal.
“They're both going to be in the same place, they're going to be in Canada, and there's a lot of problems if it's not announced,” he said at an event in Ottawa.
“That’s still possible until it happens.”
What else will be discussed?
Carney announced what he said last week was the priorities that Canada had discussed at the G7 summit, all of which were intended to “build a stronger economy.”
The Prime Minister's Office said Ottawa's priority will be to strengthen global peace and security, which includes opposing foreign intervention and transnational crime, as well as improving response to wildfires.
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Canada will boost economic growth by improving energy security, strengthening supply chains for critical minerals, and accelerating the use of artificial intelligence.
Finally, Canada will discuss job creation by ensuring that new markets are opened and large infrastructure investments are generated.
The leaders’ summit last month came after G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors agreed to cooperate in pursuit of economic growth, ensure price stability and certainty, address financial crimes and support Ukraine.
“I think any communiqué on the main issues contains any substantial collective agreement, which is a victory, and the bland document is the most likely outcome,” Sens told Global News.
David Perry, president of the Canadian Institute of Global Affairs, told Global News that Trump's influence could mean consistent issues in the past – including shared initiatives about the environment and “equalities, diversity and inclusion” will be less prominent or reduced altogether.
However, he still believes that a deal can be reached among allies, outside the tensions caused by Trump’s tariffs, especially on energy security and artificial intelligence.
The PMO said the discussion will also include ensuring peace in Ukraine and other global conflicts, as well as “a forward-looking agenda with partners outside the G7”.
The world leaders who are not part of the G7 but who will attend the summit are heads of Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, Australia, South Africa and Ukraine.
The presence of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will mark the first time North American leaders will be together as Trump's trade war threatens the Canadian United Nations Mexico Free Trade Agreement (CUSMA), which will be reviewed next year.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would ensure that talks at summits and other high-level gatherings in the coming weeks would not lead to a “hollow” agreement on the war in his country.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also be part of Carney’s invitation, a move that has drawn criticism from Canadian diaspora groups, including members of the Carney Freedom Caucus.
The Modi government has been accused of violence and intimidation against Canadian Sikh activists and politicians, including the 2023 murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
Global News learned that the Kani government also invited Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the summit, but Saudi leaders have not yet accepted the invitation publicly.
New Democratic diplomatic critic Heather McPherson accused the government of turning the summit into an invitation from Bin Salman and Bin Salman and Modi during Tuesday's problems.
Foreign Minister Anita Anand replied that the G7 was “a key forum for global leaders to conduct productive and frank discussions.”
Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Canadian Asia Pacific Foundation, said Trump's election and the growing threat environment demanded a “different approach” to diplomatic relations, which will be exhibited under Carney's leadership.
She said Modi is particularly necessary given the scale of India's economy and strategic importance. She added that the restoration of relations with India could lead to further cooperation on transnational violence and foreign intervention.
“I think we need to recognize that in today’s more dangerous world, we need to be able to have high-level negotiations with counties we have severely divided,” she told Global News.
“Diplomatism is bad for our friends – it is a tool to improve our interests and protect our values.”
Why Canadian leadership matters
Perry said Canada will work under the auspices of the President G7, but agreed that responsibility this year is a good time and Trump's trade war is still in its early stages.
“You can really play a role in shaping things and you can really find yourself on the table, and literally you are with … leaders of most major economies in the world, including the President of the United States, including the President of the United States,” he said.
“It’s a very unique role and opportunity for Canada.”
He believes the summit will also be a key test for Carney as prime minister – not only with Trump, but with other leaders.
“If the Prime Minister of Canada cannot make the most of his time with the opportunities created by six world leaders and Canada, then he should probably consider other work,” he said.
