The following diagram of the world's oldest society (Figure 1) (from visual capitalists) is both eye-catching and misleading. Monaco is much older than any other country, no doubt because you have to be older and rich to afford it. Many other places on the list are tropical island retirement paradises, including the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Comparison between Japan and the United States
It is worth mentioning the demographic information of Japan, as they can portray the photos we and other developed countries will face in the coming years. Their estimated median age is 49.8 years of today, while the median age in the United States is 38.5 years of age. The fertility rate in Japan is only 1.2 birth rates per woman, while the proportion of women in the childbirth year is currently very low. The fertility rate in the United States is 1.6 births per woman, which is still below the 2.1 replacement rate. It is no surprise that Japan's total population has slowly declined, and the decline rate may accelerate in the coming years.
One of the reasons why Japan is much larger than the United States is that Japanese live longer. Their average life expectancy at birth is 84.9 years, compared with 79.5 years in the United States. (Most of these statistics come from the world figure.)
Many people are worried that if the current trend continues, Japan's population will collapse. “The Japanese government expects that if this trend does not reverse, the country's current 125 million residents will drop to 100 million around 2050… The downward curve of population is so steep that it threatens the future strength of the country's economy.”
What about the United States?
Although fertility has dropped dramatically over time, the good news for this trend is that teenagers are born much less than in previous years (see Figure 2). From the 1990 level, it fell by 73%, and the birth rate of adolescents fell by 73%. During the same period, the number of births for women over 40 tripled, although this still does not belong to most new babies, with only about 4% of them born.
According to Jennifer D. Sciubba, chairman of the Population Reference Bureau, we may see an increase in births in the coming years because “the youngest millennial women are now 29 years old and therefore are the main reproductive year. As a group, millennials far out of Gen X women and are now withdrawing from their reproductive years, which means more potential mothers.” That means more mothers. ”
Keep immigrants
Nevertheless, the U.S. population will continue to age. If we restrict immigration, this trend will intensify. So, what if we cut off the immigration gear? The Census Bureau conducts population forecasts based on various immigration assumptions. Their intermediate forecast predicts that the U.S. population will reach about 370 million in 2080, and then slightly declined by 2,100. It predicts that with the higher immigration total, the total population may reach 2100, but lower migration will cause our population to drop to 319 million.
Elon Musk suggested that the solution is to get everyone to have more children, or at least for those living in developed countries to follow his example. But this seems to have a tendency for women to have fewer children when they have access to education and financial stability.
Given that most African countries and India continue to grow at a high rate, and many parts of the world suffer from climate change, wouldn’t it be easy to simply maintain the process of immigration flow? They certainly made a lot of contributions to the country. Musk himself is an example.
For more information about Harry Margolis, check out his risk in Senior Blog and Podcast in the United States. He also answers consumer real estate planning questions at Askharry.info. To stay up to date on the Squared Blog, join our free email list. You will only receive one email per week.
